Crystal Ball, Oh Crystal Ball

Hey, wasn’t 2010 supposed to be the year of reckoning for the legal industry? Chastened by the economic downturn, big-firm partners were practically on their knees just a year ago, swearing to clients–and anyone else who’d listen–that they’d change their antiquated, prodigal ways. Weren’t they all chanting that mantra of efficiency and rationality?

The penance was real–for a while. Fact is, the fundamentals of the legal biz are pretty much the same–and will likely remain so for the foreseeable future. Why? Because the economy, while still shaky, has stabilized for big-firm lawyers–at least for those lucky enough to hold on to their partnership seats during the turbulence–and those old ways are hard to shake.

But can anyone really return to those innocent prerecession days? Though firms are hiring and throwing out bonuses again (and associates are griping again that the bonuses are only $35,000 tops), the legal market has shrunk–and not expected to rebound to its old levels anytime soon.

So what to make of this confusing state of affairs? Well, let’s see what The Careerist’s crystal ball has to say:

First, what won’t happen in 2011:

1. Billable hours won’t die. “Alternative billing” might be the buzz term du jour, but billable hours still reign supreme–certainly at the top firms. (Remember when Cravath, Swaine & Moore’s presiding partner Evan Chesler made front-page news in The New York Times by declaring, “This is the time to get rid of the billable hour.” And how much do you want to bet that Cravath lawyers are still filling out time sheets?)

2. Efficiency and competency won’t determine compensation. Yes, firms will pressure lawyers to be more productive, but they also want lots of hours. So here’s the new drill: Bill those 2,500 hours, but do it more efficiently.

3. The pay gap between women and men partners won’t close. Women equity partners earned only 85 percent of what their male counterparts took home, reports the National Association of Women Lawyers in 2010. It’ll take a while to bridge that 15 percent gap, so what’s the hurry?

4. Law school graduates won’t thumb their noses at high-paying, prestigious jobs just because their quality of life will be dismal. (Sorry work/life balance advocates, but I don’t think Wachtell Lipton is hurting for candidates.)

5. Male lawyers won’t put work/life balance on top of their priority list. (Look around you at the next work/life balance meeting. How many men do you see there who aren’t working the event or related to one of the presenters?)

6. There won’t be a shortage of suckers who aspire to be lawyers. (According to a study by DiscoverReady in the NLJ, people will go into debt for law school because they “sincerely believe they will graduate in the top 10 percent of the class” and are just “naive consumers of debt.”)