In this week's Law Firm Disrupted, we look back at how well I did a year ago making predictions on how the legal market would change. 

I'm Roy Strom, the author of this weekly briefing on the changing legal market, and you can let me know how I fared here or sign up to receive this newsletter here.

 

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Batting 1.000? Revisiting 2018 Predictions

It's a Happy holiday season for Chicago Bears fans, myself included. The team has won 10 of their 14 games and clinched a playoff spot by winning their first NFC North division title since 2010.

The Bears' performance surpassed most experts' preseason predictions. Most local sports writers predicted the team would be around .500. They were wrong, of course. But, to my perennial dismay, I don't see any sportswriters looking back on their predictions.

For columnists, there is more than one way to shirk accountability. Sure, they can take the easy route: silence. But a more subtle tactic, as you'll see, is to make predictions that can't miss.

Happy anniversary, readers. This weekly column is officially a year old. Today marks my 52nd briefing since the first one hit your inboxes last November. The first season's over, you might say. My first column offered something like a set of predictions for how the legal market would change. I called them “theses” that I would use to guide these explorations each week:

1. Every firm will undergo or is undergoing its own change management project that some partners will buy into and others will not.

2. Law firms won't be selling time in the long run, and they should figure out ways to quantify and compensate for a lawyer's value.

3. Chief technology officers have an increasingly difficult job, but they should be discerning; their voices should be empowered; and law firms should invest more.

4. Firms need to be honest with themselves about what market they're competing in.

I am going to claim a 100 percent accuracy rate. I stand by all those claims today. As for the fourth one, which wasn't even a prediction, I stand by the advice.

More seriously, what I ask of you, dear readers, is to let me know if those four topics served as useful guides, and whether Ifollowed them. There is plenty of reading to catch up on that I've collected below.

Thank you for reading this column. It has proven more popular than I ever thought it would be, and I hope it has offered some useful insight and observations to help navigate the changing legal market. We'll be back in the New Year.

On Change Management:

Can Law Firms Think Long Term?

On Value-Based Billing and Compensation:

In Heavyweight Bout, It's Clients v. Law Firms

On Legal Market Stratification: 

What Is the 'New Normal' for Kirkland & Ellis?

Metrics Plus Prestige: A Powerful Combo

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Roy's Reading Corner

On Generational Issues: Not all age gaps present problems inside law firms. At Paul Weiss, retired partner Mordie Rochlin is seen as an institutional treasure. The 106-year-old Rochlin still goes to the office, as Susan DeSantis reported this week for the New York Law Journal. The story is worth a read, and it contains great details, like this one: Rochlin is the only man alive who knew all five Paul, Weiss, Rifkind, Wharton & Garrison name partners.

On Law Firm Mergers: When it comes to cross-border law firm transactions, there is really only one name in town: Dentons. Dan Packel reports for The American Lawyer that Dentons once again led the way in combining with law firms across the globe. Dentons completed three more global deals than all other U.S. law firms combined, for a total of eight, Packel writes.

On Bay-Area Buyouts: I wrote earlier this year about the booming buyout business and how private equity deals are keeping flush a quintet of law firms: Kirkland, Latham, Ropes & Gray, Weil and Simpson Thacher. My colleague Xiumei Dong took a closer look at how those firms have fared in Silicon Valley.

From her report: “According to data provided by the firms, Kirkland handled about 80 announced private equity deals in the Bay Area this year—20 more than last year—for a total value of $16.6 billion. Ropes & Gray said it completed over 18 private equity deals across California worth $6.9 billion. Weil handled 33 deals in the Bay Area, almost double the amount from last year, with a combined value of $12 billion, the firm said. Simpson Thacher said its Palo Alto office has handled 20 private equity deals so far this year.”

That's it for this week! Thanks again for reading, and please feel free to reach out to me at [email protected]. Sign up here to receive The Law Firm Disrupted as a weekly email.