We've been monitoring the trends in new commercial litigation in federal courts since the COVID-19 pandemic was declared, using the same data that powers Law.com's Legal Radar. This week, we take a closer look at individual districts and regions and get some perspective from the Law.com reporters who cover them.

➤ View previous Legal Radar Trend Detection reports here and here.

Looking at the 10 calendar weeks ending May 17, federal court data show a dip of 21 percent in overall case volume compared to the same period in 2019. The slump is especially prominent in jurisdictions where local residents have been hard-hit by the pandemic.

Even jurisdictions that have not seen such a sharp drop in cases year-over-year—like California —have such a big volume generally that relatively smaller changes still have an outsize impact on the national trend year-over-year. (Our counts exclude most repetitious mass tort cases and certain non-commercial litigation, such as social security claims and immigration cases, as well as criminal cases.)

But why would the Central District of California—in Los Angeles County, where COVID-19 infections are high—look so different from Illinois?

"I think one reason that there hasn't been as dramatic a dip in California—and this is purely anecdotal—is that civil plaintiffs are almost completely shut off from the state courts in all but the most emergency matters here in California," suggests Ross Todd, the San Francisco-based bureau chief of Law.com affiliate The Recorder. "Some plaintiffs that typically might sue in state court might be taking a shot in federal court."

Looking at filings across all the district courts in Texas, we see that the state appears to be the exception. Compared to the same period last year, new commercial litigation filings are basically flat. But if that's what the numbers show for federal courts, it doesn't necessarily reflect Texas attorneys' anxiety over their business—or what's happening in state courts.

In a recent nationwide poll conducted by Texas litigation reporter Angela Morris, almost 65 percent of the 114 attorneys who said they practice in Texas said their case volume has decreased amid the pandemic. That's hard to reconcile with the federal court stats. But in an email, Morris questioned whether out-of-state attorneys filing lawsuits in Texas may account for federal litigation numbers staying stable in the state.