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We saw improvement, albeit modest, in industry performance from the first-quarter results to the first half of 2019, but so far it’s a different year than last year. With marginal demand growth and a continued lengthening of the collection cycle, 2019 has reverted to a rate story. Meanwhile, expenses have continued to grow at a faster pace than revenue, placing pressure on margins. Looking ahead, the back half of the year should benefit from strong inventory balances at the midyear point. It will be a challenge for the industry to see a repeat of 2018’s strong performance in this year’s results, but expect it to be a good year relative to earlier post-recession years.

These results are based on a sample of 191 firms (77 Am Law 100 firms, 54 Second Hundred firms and 60 niche/boutique firms). Thirty-six of these firms fit our definition of either international (less than 25% but more than 10% of lawyers based outside the United States) or global (at least 25% of lawyers based outside the United States). Citi Private Bank provides financial services to more than 700 U.S. and U.K. law firms and more than 50,000 individual lawyers. Each quarter, the Law Firm Group confidentially surveys firms in the Am Law 100 and the Second Hundred, along with smaller firms. In addition, we conduct a more detailed annual survey and semiannually produce the Law Firm Leaders Confidence Index. These reports, together with extensive discussions with law firm leaders, provide a comprehensive overview of current financial trends in the industry as well as forward-looking insight.

Revenue growth of 4.1% in the first half of 2019 was driven largely by lawyer billing rate growth of 4.6%, as demand grew 0.1%. While marginal demand growth is a very different story than in the first half of 2018, many firms told us that activity improved during the second quarter, and indeed we saw an improvement over the first quarter demand decline of 0.3%. If soft demand has tempered revenue growth, so has the 1.6% lengthening of the collection cycle—up from the 1% lengthening reported in the first quarter, and continuing a prolonged trend. We continue to hear from firms about the shift in client bill payment behavior driving much of the collections slowdown, citing e-billing systems and greater scrutiny around bill review. Some firms talk of their clients unilaterally changing payment terms as a primary driver of the longer collection cycle. The good news is that inventory growth remained relatively strong at 5.8% and should continue to provide collections momentum into the third quarter.

Expense growth of 5.9% moderated from the 6.5% reported in the first quarter. However, it significantly exceeded revenue growth, compressing margins. Lawyer compensation growth of 7.3% continued to drive much of the increase in expenses, and was driven in part by lawyer head count growth of 1.7%. The greater pressure comes from the mid-2018 associate compensation increases, which are now mostly priced into the expense base. Operating expenses were up 4.8%, but have moderated since the material first quarter 5.9% increase, helping to manage the total expense growth result.

With 1.7% growth in total lawyer head count, and just 0.1% increase in the equity partnership, lawyer leverage was up by 2.1%. Meanwhile, given the modest demand environment, we saw average lawyer productivity continue to trail 2018 results, dipping 1.2%. While this is better than the 1.8% productivity decline we saw during the first quarter, we continue to operate in an environment where firms are paying more for lower productivity.

Behind these averages, we saw a return to high levels of dispersion in demand performance. Fifty percent of firms saw demand decline during the first half of 2019—the highest proportion for a first half since 2014. We also saw volatility in demand performance, defined as alternating periods of demand growth and decline. To measure volatility, we looked at the 151 firms that reported first-half results in 2017, 2018 and 2019. Notably, approximately 51% of these firms either saw demand increase in the first half of 2018 and decrease in the first half of 2019, or vice versa. Further, roughly 28% of firms saw demand decline in both periods.

Looking at the results by revenue size, Am Law 51-100 firms continued to outperform other segments in revenue and demand growth, up 5.1% and 1%, respectively. While the collection cycle lengthened for these firms, Am Law 51-100 firms also have the highest inventory growth (at 7.4%), setting them up well for a strong third quarter. In contrast, Am Law 1-50 firms saw flat demand growth, but recovered from the 0.7% decline we saw during the first quarter. Am Law 1-50 rate increases continued to outpace other segments, up 5.2%, and were the primary driver of the 4.2% growth in revenue (second only to the Am Law 51-100 firms). Am Law 1-50 firms also saw the collection cycle lengthen by 1.8% and carry strong inventory levels (up 6.1%) into the rest of the year.

The smaller firms in our sample (Second Hundred firms and Other firms) had a challenging first half of the year. Both segments were well below the industry averages in terms of revenue growth (both up 2.8%) and lawyer billing rate growth (3.4% and 2.8%, respectively). Second Hundred firms saw demand grow 0.4% while Other firms saw a material decline of 2.6%. Compared to Am Law 100 firms, both of these segments have comparatively lower inventory growth going into the rest of the year.

Looking at firms by geographic reach, global firms saw the greatest demand growth (1.5%) and saw the second-strongest increases in both revenue (up 4.1%) and billing rates (up 4.7%). They also carry a 6.6% inventory increase into the third quarter, signaling strong collections ahead. International firms saw the greatest rate increases, at 5.7%, but demand was down 0.9% and the collection cycle lengthened by 2.7%. As a result, this segment reported 3.8% growth in revenue. Looking ahead, with 6.5% inventory buildup, international firms should also see a strong second half. With both segments experiencing margin pressure, and possible currency headwinds, collections will be an imperative during the second half of this year.

National firms saw the greatest revenue growth (5.4%), driven by a combination of 0.8% demand growth, 4.3% rate increases and a shortened collection cycle. Indeed, this was the only segment to shorten the collection cycle. Meanwhile, inventory growth of 5% should help boost second-half collections.

Regional firms saw the most challenging first half. They reported the largest demand decline at 1.3% and the lowest billing rate increase of 3.9%. Revenue growth of 2.6% trailed all segments, far below the 4.5% growth in expenses. Looking ahead, 5.2% growth in inventory places these firms in a decent position for collections.

The first half of 2019 saw slower revenue growth than we saw through the same period in 2018. While the demand environment improved from first to second quarter, demand for the first six months remained essentially flat compared with the first half of 2018, with a return to high levels of dispersion. Meanwhile, the collection cycle continues to lengthen, making strong billing rate increases the primary driver of top-line growth. Looking to the second half of 2019, collecting on increased inventory levels will be key—especially given the margin pressure we see in first-half results. We expect 2019 to be a decent year. However, as we wrote in May, it will be challenging to build on the success of 2018, and many firms will fall short of that goal, possibly driving continued market consolidation.

Gretta Rusanow is head of advisory services within Citi Private Bank’s Law Firm Group. Jeff Grossman is head of business development and client strategy. Client adviser David Altuna contributed to this article.