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Confused about the state of the law firm merger market? You're probably not alone.

That's because two legal industry consultancies that track law firm mergers issued very different assessments of merger activity for the third quarter of 2019 this week, with one detailing a slowdown and the other suggesting it was a summer of love for the industry.

Fairfax Associates on Monday said mergers were down compared to 2018, with fewer deals overall, and none of the 46 mergers it has counted so far in 2019 involving large law firms. Altman Weil, meanwhile, reported Tuesday that it had been a "record-shattering" quarter for mergers, with 38 law firms announcing plans to combine, and one deal—Indianapolis-based Taft Stettinius & Hollister linking up with Minneapolis-based Briggs and Morgan—creating a 600-lawyer firm.

The biggest difference between Fairfax and Altman Weil's assessments is spelled out in their releases: Altman Weil counts merger announcements—including those that may not be finalized for months—while Fairfax counts only completed mergers involving firms that have more than five lawyers.

This means deals like the one between Taft and Briggs, announced in August, won't show up in Fairfax's data until 2020, because the merger goes into effect in January 2020.

Not surprisingly, each of the consultancies stands by its own approach. "I think our data is more reflective of what's going on in the marketplace," Altman Weil principal Thomas Clay said.

Clay notes that while Altman Weil includes pending mergers, it requires more than speculation and only counts deals announced by the firms themselves—"all the i's and t's have been dotted and crossed," he said. The firm doesn't count merger talks that spill out into the public but ultimately fail, such as the long-reported negotiations between Allen & Overy and O'Melveny & Myers that collapsed last month.

"Speculation and gossip are of no interest to us," Clay added.

Fairfax analyst Lisa Smith acknowledged that there is difference between the firms' focus, adding that whatever the volume of new deals, there's been a notable lack of "market-shaking mergers" in 2019.

"It's the bigger combinations that drive consolidation," Smith said. "If there were 100 mergers of two-lawyer firms, they wouldn't make much of a difference in the legal market."

Thirteen of the mergers that were announced in Q3 2019 involved firms with four people or less, according to Altman Weil. This included Nixon Peabody acquiring a firm in Washington, D.C., that specialized in immigration issues, and Womble Bond Dickinson merging with an English IP boutique.

However you count them, the year in mergers feels lackluster because 2018 was such a banner year for combinations, said Zeughauser Group consultant Kent Zimmermann. A record-setting 106 law firm merger announcements were made last year, according to Altman Weil, while Fairfax found that 72 mergers were completed, which was higher than 2017′s numbers and the historical average between 2008 and 2017.

The average amount of time that elapses between when merger discussions start and when a deal is closed is nine months, Zimmerman said. And while they may not all be consummated in the end, he said he is engaged in "several active merger discussions" involving Am Law 100, Second Hundred and Global 100 firms.

"Some of those will go the distance," Zimmerman said.

Clay, Smith and Zimmerman each said they're seeing lots of discussions among law firms about merging or acquiring others, and they're all anticipating major law firm merger deals in 2020.

Apart from the upcoming merger of Taft and Briggs, 10 of the announced mergers Altman Weil reported involved global behemoth Dentons adding international offices to its ranks. Dentons' largest announced acquisition in Q3 2019 was Kensington Swan, a 113-lawyer firm in Auckland, New Zealand.

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