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The escalating coronavirus crisis didn't derail New York health care litigator Josh Simon's move from Kirkland & Ellis to McDermott Will & Emery.

He and two colleagues officially started at McDermott on Monday, following one of the most destabilizing weeks in recent American history. Luckily, the group was "almost at the finish line," Simon said.

"I can't praise McDermott enough in terms of their willingness to work through this coronavirus crisis and get us in the door, up to speed, and up and running so we can serve our clients as easily as possible," Simon said.

Like Simon, Boston real estate partner Keith Barnett had already had a face-to-face courtship with Proskauer Rose before COVID-19′s spread across the U.S. accelerated. But in his last days at Wilmer Cutler Pickering Hale and Dorr, he and the team at the new firm recognized that he should immediately be set up with a laptop and access to their systems after leaving Wilmer on March 13, rather than waiting until Monday for onboarding in person.

"I am working seamlessly," he said.

These lawyers' moves—and their new firms' efforts to get them integrated remotely—are welcome signs that lateral hires haven't ground to a halt amid a spate of new logistical challenges.

But what of the broader economic upheaval caused by the pandemic—and the partners who might not be as far along in the process?

The outlook for the U.S. economy is significantly dimmer than it was just a week ago. Analysts at JPMorgan, Goldman Sachs and Morgan Stanley have all officially forecast a coming global recession.

Nonetheless, recruiters across the country say that discussions between firms and candidates are still advancing for now.

"Firms are still continuing to meet with people, either in very small groups or one-on-one with appropriate social distance, or moving to video where need be," said Jeffrey Lowe, global practice leader at Major, Lindsey & Africa.

Likewise, Scott Love, president of Washington, D.C.-based The Attorney Search Group, said a candidate just pivoted from a round of scheduled meetings to a series of video conferences.

"Firms are still motivated, the candidate is still interested," he said. "I don't see firms slowing down."

Nor are firms categorically refraining from starting searches. Chicago-based recruiter Kay Hoppe says that while half of her clients are turning inward, the other half are saying "don't let me miss a superstar."

And certain practices are bound to see surges in demand. Hoppe recently spoke with a lawyer she called one of the top bankruptcy practitioners in the nation.

"I've got absolutely no doubt there's going be a tremendous amount of restructuring," she said. "It looked like the end of the year for that, but the timetable seems to be changing a little bit."

In Pittsburgh, recruiter Maura McAnney of McAnney, Esposito & Kraybill Associates reports that many corporations hiring for in-house positions are moving forward on their commitments, while law firm partners are being more cautious about moves.

She's curious about how the reorientation toward video meetings is going to impact how lawyers on the move will mesh with their potential new partners.

"It's to be determined how we will be able to apply the use of videoconferencing so that candidates can consider the culture of the firm they are considering and leaders can consider the fit of the candidates," she said.

But Michael Allen, the Los Angeles-based CEO and founder of Lateral Link, emphasized that the protracted nature of the hiring dance—often six months between from start to finish—means that even newly launched searches will presumably include face-to-face meetings eventually.

"This isn't a six-month hiatus. You can still start the process," he said. "A lot can be postponed via videoconferencing. Firms quickly adapt."

And firms looking for litigators and restructuring experts, in particular, haven't lost their appetites. "If they had the hiring need two weeks ago, they still have the demand," Allen added.

In the past, economic strife has prompted groups of attorneys to leave struggling firms en masse. But Hoppe is warning attorneys against forming teams. 

"I just told a candidate of mine, do not commit deeply right now because it's going to affect your ability to get hired and your compensation," she said.

Given that recruiters' livelihoods depend on a steady stream of movement, they have reasons for reassuring both candidates and firms about a climate of normalcy.

But what if, as one JPMorgan economist predicted Wednesday, the U.S. economy craters 14% in the second quarter, over 5% steeper than the fourth quarter of 2008, the worst quarter of the Great Recession?

The comparison to the last protracted downturn is useful. ALM data shows that laterals spiked by 11% in 2009, the first full year of the recession. That was a function of both heightened demand for litigators and restructuring experts and even more from collapsing firms sending lawyers looking for new opportunities. The following year revealed a much different pattern, with a 27% decline that represented the fewest moves since 2000.

Regardless of what the future looks like, there will be some form of lateral market, particularly for elite attorneys in every practice area, not just the countercyclical ones.

"When the pie shrinks, there's still a pie. You have to understand what is in demand. This will force firms to truly identify what makes them distinct and sell that to their clients," Love said. "That might force people to go to firms that do have a better strategy."

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