The American Lawyer editor-in-chief Gina Passarella.

The close of the 2019 fiscal year probably feels like decades ago, but the efforts made in the last quarter of last year and the first quarter of 2020 will play a big part in how firms weather this downturn.

The growth across the Am Law 100 was strong, but slower than the prior two years, showing the economy was starting to feel some signs of a slowdown. Rate increases of more than 3% drove much of the growth and more than 80% of firms said they planned to increase rates by more than 3% in 2020—a plan tossed out the window now as firms hope to realize even half of their normal collections over the next few months.

But if firms have cash on hand or readily accessible, the coming months will be more manageable.

In most cases, firm leaders reported a very strong March, both in terms of demand and collections, saying they came in ahead of March 2019. There was some evidence of softness in the last two weeks of the month, mainly on the collections side, but not enough to miss budget by any material amount, if at all. While the early days of April were also good from a demand perspective, firms are preparing for a rough rest of the second quarter, modeling as much as 50% down on collections. That is driving many of the cash-preserving measures firms are taking.

All predictions for just how far the industry will see revenue drop in 2020 are just that—predictions. No one knows. But the ranges we consistently hear are between flat and 30% down for the year, with somewhere in the middle being most consistent.

Banks and firm leaders say firms are much better capitalized coming into this downturn than they were in the Great Recession. They are also better run, with more seasoned business executives in the C-suite. Last year ended on a very strong Q4 and inventory was heavy coming into 2020. Given the timing of when the crisis hit, many firms were able to delay 2019 distributions normally paid out in Q1 and are using that as a cushion for when collections slow. Some firms paid out April partner draws (but warned it could be the last for a while), while others held them back.

Law firms say they are busier than ever in many respects, with clients seeking counseling across a number of novel areas. But turning that into paid work, or longer-term engagements that would rack up hours, is proving difficult. Even if it is billable work, most firms seem resigned to the fact that lawyers will not be at the top of the list for clients to pay in the months ahead. This is the time to invest in your client relationships, and firms have to have the access to cash that will allow for that investment of unpaid time.

The numbers we write about in these pages a year from now will be determined by a variety of factors, including the length of the downturn, culture, practice mix and a firm's philosophy on debt and cash conservation leading into this crisis. These won't be easy months, and leadership and communication are needed now more than ever. But it's also a time to look for opportunity. Opportunity to do things differently. Opportunity to differentiate. Opportunity to move your position, not just in these rankings, but in the eyes of clients and talent. Be well.