After Milbank announced associate bonuses for 2024 late Monday, legal industry insiders say they anticipate hearing similar announcements elsewhere from top firms soon as the year winds down to a close, particularly given the healthy economic indicators currently emanating from Big Law.

While Cravath Swaine & Moore was once recognized as the market-setter for Big Law compensation, Milbank has been taking the lead in bonus announcements since 2019. The firm's latest set of year-end associate bonuses, which range from $15,000 to $115,000, appear to follow the same bonus scale from the fall of 2023.

The firm also rolled out a separate set of associate bonuses this summer, but after peers were reticent in matching those payouts, the big question is whether they will take the opportunity to make up for the difference in its year-end payouts.

"I think Milbank has established itself as a leader in the market when it comes to first movers on bonuses and pay increases," Katherine Loanzon, managing director with Kinney recruiting, wrote in an email. "This summer, Milbank was the first firm to announce summer bonuses, with most firms not matching. For year-end bonuses, it is usually expected that law firms will follow Milbank in making their own bonus announcements."

Loanzon was uncertain about how firms would approach the compensation gap created by Milbank's summer bonuses.

"We will have to wait and see," she said. "The market has only recently started to bounce back from a lull in activity."

In September, The American Lawyer reported that other firms likely didn't match Milbank's summer bonuses because the hiring market continues to be in firms' favor. At the time, Milbank chairman Scott Edelman predicted that other top-tier law firms would likely match the summer bonuses toward the end of the year.

"Given the history of these firms paying the same associate compensation, at least at the top of the market, my thought with what we were going to see happen this year was the other firms were going to kind of take that special bonus into their year-end bonus numbers," said Stephanie Biderman, who works in the associate practice group of recruiting firm Major Lindsey & Africa. "Time will tell, and we'll see if that's actually what happens."

Biderman said her immediate takeaway is that Milbank continues in its role as a market leader and first mover when it comes to associate compensation, and the question now is whether other large firms would follow suit with the same figures as Milbank or exceed that scale. It simply may be too early to conjecture at this point, she said.

"Traditionally, when the numbers go much higher, it's because these firms had incredibly profitable, successful years," Biderman said. "What's interesting right now, from what I'm seeing and hearing, is that firms did very well last year. I'm not sure if, as a result, we're going to see those bonus numbers go up higher."

What also remains unclear following Milbank's associate bonus hike is whether other firms would consider overall salary increases for their associate attorneys. Milbank announced an associate salary boost last November at the same time that it rolled out year-end bonuses, prompting many peers to follow suit.

"That is hard to project," said Darin Morgan, a managing partner with Major Lindsey & Africa. "There have been several salary bumps in the 'Cravath scale' the past few years. While it is possible an industry leader raises salries, there is also the option that someone may increase the bonus scale while leaving salaries static, or potentially offer special bonuses mid-year."

Kent Zimmermann, a consultant with Zeughauser Group, said associate salary increases typically come later during the course of the following year.

"There are a number of reasons why base salary could go up next year, particularly if transactional flow increases next year over this year, which would lead to some firms becoming capacity constrained," he said. "[This] in turn would be more likely to lead to base compensation increases for associates.

Many firms will likely wait and see what the supply and demand picture looks like in 2025 before such decisions are made, he said.

As for year-end associate bonuses, Zimmermann said they are typically issued by firms that experience "increasingly high levels of activities for associates."

"It remains to be seen if there will be a widespread trend," Zimmermann said. "There may or may not."

Supply and demand generally drive compensation, including bonuses, Zimmerman said, observing that for firms who are not capacity-constrained, bonuses would be less likely.

Meanwhile, the discussion surrounding associate pay follows news that Big Law firms had a financially successful third quarter, with optimism about performance and profitability continuing into the foreseeable future.

On Monday, The American Lawyer reported that many firms through September experienced demand growth, a rise in productivity, an increase in head count and significant financial gains.