For sure, 2014 was a big year for mergers and acquisitions. As noted by Troy Ungerman of Norton Rose Fulbright, “U.S. M&A activity was at peak performance in 2014 as deal activity increased to over 5,051 deals with $1.5 [trillion], up from 3,995 transactions worth $937 [billion] in 2013.” But he says that a potential rise in interest rates by the Federal Reserve could affect deal activity this year.

A new report from MergerMarket examined this issue, and Ungerman focused on some key takeaways:

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  • Speed Matters: “The experts were of the opinion that a key factor related to the impact of rising interest rates on M&A activity is the speed at which the rise in interest rates occurs,” says Ungerman. A slow, gradual rise equals a strong economy and an increase in corporate confidence, whereas a sudden increase in interest rates could create more volatility in the marketplace, he says.
  • Capital Markets as Markers? “Capital markets today are the deepest that they have been in a long time, perhaps ever,” he says. But what that means for M&A activity is up for debate. Some experts say the liquidity could buffer higher interest rates, but others are more skeptical.
  • Interest Is Global: When it comes to international transactions, obviously U.S. interest rates are only one factor, especially when compared with whether they signal a rise in global interest rates, says Ungerman. If U.S. rates are rising ahead of global ones, it's possible U.S. companies will move in on overseas targets.