Survey Suggests an Increase to CMBS Originations This Year
When it comes to gauging the size of the commercial mortgage-backed securities market this year, readers of Real Estate Forum are solidly in the mainstream.…
March 25, 2015 at 06:00 AM
3 minute read
When it comes to gauging the size of the commercial mortgage-backed securities market this year, readers of Real Estate Forum are solidly in the mainstream. A survey of CRE Finance Council members in January found that 70 percent expect CMBS originations to increase about 25 percent this year from 2014's tally of $90.7 billion, totaling between $101 billion and $125 billion.
Forum readers are only slightly less bullish, with 60 percent expecting CMBS volume to exceed $100 billion in 2015, including 11 percent who predict we'll see it go north of $125 billion. Readers' outlook on the capital markets—from CMBS to the availability and attractiveness of debt financing sources—will be the focal point of a feature in the April issue of the magazine.
Already, the numbers are supporting industry members' expectations. Earlier this month, analysts at JPMorgan Chase & Co. predicted that volume for the first quarter would reach $25 billion, while Morgan Stanley predicts $30 billion. Even if volume for the subsequent three quarters remained unchanged from Q1, the year-end tally would be within the consensus $101 billion to $125-billion parameters.
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