On a normal day, Centennial Bank's Florida operations would issue five loans and get two others repaid, but nothing has been normal since the coronavirus set in and threw the once robust commercial real estate market into uncertainty.

David Druey

"We are not lending any new money," David Druey, Centennial Florida regional president in Pompano Beach, said in a March 27 interview shortly before President Donald Trump signed the $2 trillion relief bill. "We haven't had people calling us saying, 'Oh, I want to borrow money.' It's not really about expansion today."

The bank, which has $4 billion in assets from the Florida Keys to Orlando, saw requests halt in the second week of March when COVID-19 shut down sports tournaments, conferences and music festivals. The closing of hotels and all retail except grocery stores, pharmacies and gas stations followed, a massive blow to South Florida's tourism and entertainment-based economy.

"That's when everybody went, 'This is a serious thing. Let me hit pause,' " Druey said. By April 15, he said the bank was " financing very selective deals," approved hundreds of Small Business Administration loans and is lending on projects to customers.

With so much uncertainty, banks and alternative lenders alike are wary — and could remain wary for some time — of issuing new debt. Retail and hospitality are the hardest hit with massive furloughs and layoffs, but high-flying industrial property owners and users aren't immune.

Last-mile delivery centers dealing in e-commerce are expected to do well as more people stuck at home switch to online shopping. But warehouses catering to cruise lines, airlines and the convention industry are struggling.

Bowman Brown

"In general, banks will be very careful with extending new credit to existing clients, including industrial and retail," said Bowman Brown, a Shutts & Bowen partner in Miami. "It's clear that the economy in Florida is going to be impacted negatively because Florida is so focused on tourism and entertainment. They are going to be very concerned about the health of their borrowers, so I don't think they are going to want to lend aggressively to anybody."

The serious economic slowdown is expected to have a trickle-up effect as tenants skip rent payments. Restaurant Cheesecake Factory, Subway and Mattress Firm announced they would stop or skimp on rents payments.

This leaves landlords stuck between nonpaying tenants and their own lenders. A deluge of loan defaults is expected once courts lift foreclosure moratoriums.