Lindsey Lazopoulos Friedman, Assistant U.S. Attorney for the Southern District of Florida in Miami.

The COVID-19-induced commercial shutdown has had an outsized impact on the art world, including significant layoffs at museums throughout the world, the cancellation or postponement of art fairs and auctions, financial losses to nonprofit arts organizations estimated at nearly $5 billion to date, and an unprecedented impact on artists and creatives; 95% of whom report income loss.

Likewise, the pandemic has impacted the underbelly of the art world, crime, including thefts and trafficking. Crime as a whole is down double-digits throughout the United States and in other parts of the world. While art crime is expected to decrease as well, there have been at least two significant thefts that stoked early concerns about the vulnerability of priceless artwork in vacant museums and galleries. The first theft occurred on March 14 at Oxford University's Christ Church college gallery. The thief made off with three 17th century paintings, including "A Soldier on Horseback," a significant work by Flemish painter Anthony van Dyck dating from 1616. Together with the two other paintings, a Salvator Rosa and an Annibale Caracci, the three works are worth an estimated $12.2 million. Authorities were perplexed by how the thieves even managed to break into the gallery.

The second high-profile theft, Vincent van Gogh's "The parsonage Garden at Nuenen in Spring 1884," occurred on van Gogh's birthday, March 30, from the Singer Laren museum near Amsterdam. Newly released footage shows the thief used a sledgehammer to break through the museum's reinforced glass doors; he then quickly took the painting, and sped off on a motorcycle.

Investigations are underway, but authorities have not found the stolen artworks or any suspects in either case.

Most major museums in the United States report that they are still maintaining 24-hour security and haven't changed their security protocols. Ultimately, if there is a complete economic collapse, issues with a lack of security and limitations on law enforcement may become long-term norms. For example, after Greece's financial collapse in 2009, the imposition of austerity measures sharply reduced the number of people employed to protect museums and archaeological sites. As a result, the country saw a 30% increase in trafficking of classical antiquities.

Whether criminals will be able to capitalize on their ill-gotten wares is another question. The legal art trade is only just beginning to come out of hibernation, but the pandemic may not have much of an impact on the black market. After a theft, a highly recognizable work—such as the van Gogh or Van Dyck—are too hot to immediately sell and thus the thief often has to sit on the piece for a period of time. In addition, the thief may need a fraudster to help forge provenance and a middlemen or inside dealer to connect the thief with a purchaser. Stolen works are always sold at a steep discount. However, if there is further economic degradation, that discount may become even more significant. The theft of these works demonstrates an optimism in their long-term value and a conviction in the evanescence of the pandemic .

Whether the two-profile thefts are canaries in the coalmine for more desperate criminal acts remains to be seen.  In the meantime, the market is experimenting and striving to adapt to this new normal. The Gagosian Gallery recently sold a Cecily Brown painting for $5.5 million via an online viewing room during the first week of May. Meanwhile, ICA Miami offers remote access to livestreamed exhibitions, and other museums have begun to reopen with new social distancing practices. Still, museum security consultants warn that the risks to museums that remain shutdown, such as the Perez Art Museum Miami which announced it won't reopen until September, are "serious." Museums and galleries should take the time to consult with their insurers on security issues, ensure their security systems are functioning properly, closely restrict entry to buildings and storage, and avoid publicizing their security practices.

Lindsey Lazopoulos Friedman in an assistant U.S. attorney with the Southern District of Florida in Miami.