The pandemic-prompted economic shutdown has devastated small businesses, taking a roaring economy down to a whimper in only a few short months. And while companies are struggling, we still haven't seen the expected flood of bankruptcies due to the downturn. But just like the water recedes before a tsunami, economic turmoil is definitely coming.

The New York Times recently reported that the enormous number of filings likely to hit over the coming months could overwhelm the courts working to rescue businesses worth saving in this worst economic downturn since the Great Depression. According to a National Bureau of Economic Research study, the number of active business owners in the country fell by 22%, from 15 million to 11.7 million between February and April. This compares to 5% or 730,000 business owners during the Great Recession. And the American Bankruptcy Institute reports a 48% increase in commercial Chapter 11 filings in May over 2019, although total commercial filings decreased 28%. I suspect the reason for the overall decrease is a result of federal and state pandemic-relief programs,shoring up more than 4.4 million small businesses in the Paycheck Protection Program (PPP) alone. U.S. court closures and diminished access to bankruptcy attorneys due to social distancing measures also may have contributed to the decline.

Looking ahead, I expect to see a considerable uptick in bankruptcy filings, particularly as government programs expire. Bankruptcy filings will start to rise in the late summer and continue surge upward through the fall. November and December filings will level off with the welcomed distraction of the holidays but will resurge intensely at the start of 2021. Next year will bear the brunt of the economic shockwave set off by the 2020 shutdown mixed with record-setting debt: we'll see a momentous increase in bankruptcies, as businesses navigate a world of increased debt and decreased profit.

Businesses that were debt-laden and teetering on the edge of solvency prior to the pandemic will be the first to file for bankruptcy. We already see businesses failing in the retail industry, as the environment in this space continues to shift from brick-and-mortar to e-commerce. Players like Amazon, Alibaba and eBay thrive while traditional retailers like J. Crew, Neiman Marcus, Forever 21, JC Penney, and Pier 1 Imports, to name a few, have filed for bankruptcy after being pushed over the edge amid the forced economic shutdown. The bankruptcy filings of these retailers, already struggling pre-pandemic, are the first wave of the tsunami to come.

On the flip side, small businesses that were doing well before the shutdown, with strong balance sheets and business plans, will likely come through these challenging times relatively unscathed. The PPP program and other government initiatives will have served their purpose in these cases, providing a stopgap to get them through the uncertainty and business decline due to COVID-19 measures. These stronger small businesses likely will come out of the shutdown in a position to rebuild, despite being battered and bruised. To make up for their losses, they'll have to shift and modify their businesses to accommodate a post-pandemic world, perhaps with continued social distancing measures, fewer employees and decreased profit margins.

For small businesses with shakier futures, there still is a bright spot. The Small Business Reorganization Act was passed last summer—when a global pandemic that would shutter the U.S. economy wasn't on anyone's radar. This amendment to the Bankruptcy Code's Chapter 11, known as Subchapter V, went into effect this past February and is now a lifeline to small businesses. Subchapter V allows small businesses to take a breath, pause their obligations, and have time to negotiate with lenders, landlords, and other creditors. It enables debtors to reduce monthly payments and the overall amount owed to creditors. It also allows creditors to recoup a meaningful amount that would not be realized through a liquidation. It typically results in a win-win for both parties. And it may well save a broad swath of our country's small businesses.

As I work with clients in this new environment, I see an unsettling trend. While Florida's governor has declared a moratorium on residential evictions, there's no freeze on business evictions. As such, many small businesses—victims of a forced shutdown resulting in little to no income—are receiving eviction notices. One would expect landlords to offer some flexibility in this situation, but they are not. I see landlords rigidly moving forward with the eviction process, perhaps because of their own urgent financial challenges. They're booting out good tenants, who have operated successfully for years, never having missed a rent payment. Now, in this indisputable time of adversity that's no fault of the tenant, landlords are not giving an inch.

What these landlords are missing is this: if they evict a tenant, the landlord ends up with nothing except legal fees and vacancy costs. In my opinion, it makes much more sense to work with tenants, preferably one-on-one without attorneys (or their fees), to come to an agreement on paying back rent and formulating an agreed-upon plan moving forward. In fact, my team often presents mock bankruptcy filings in these cases. We transparently show the creditor where the case is likely to end up and its financial implications. Offering this information in advance many times results in a deal being struck prior to bankruptcy action with all parties coming out ahead. In my opinion, landlords should work with tenants now more than ever. It's a smart business move, but also an important act of compassion during this time of upheaval.

Economic turmoil and its impacts during these unprecedented times are inevitable over the coming year and beyond. To get through this, debtors and creditors alike should use all resources at their disposal to come out stronger. This also is a time when simple acts of kindness, just doing what's right, can change a person's life and ensure the viability of a small business.

Chad Van Horn is a founding partner of Van Horn Law Group, the largest bankruptcy firm in Broward County. He is the author of two bankruptcy books, "Everything You Need to Know About Bankruptcy in Florida" and "The Debt Life."