Lawmakers want to further pinpoint where to use real-estate tax revenue for land conservation, as state economists warn the real-estate market might slow because of affordability problems and rising interest rates.

Members of the House Agriculture & Natural Resources Appropriations Subcommittee on Monday quickly pushed forward bills that would provide $20 million a year to help ecosystems in the Florida Keys and an additional $20 million for the headwaters of several waterways in Central Florida.

The money for the Keys (HB 449), which was approved without opposition or debate, would be used for restoration of the Keys, Florida Bay, and ecosystems such as coral reefs and to acquire land within what is known as the Florida Keys Area of Critical State Concern.

A separate measure (HB 603), which was approved in a 13-1 vote, would help carry out a 2017 law known as the Heartland Headwaters Protection and Sustainability Act, which was designed to protect the headwaters of the Alafia, Hillsborough, Kissimmee, Ocklawaha, Peace and Withlacoochee Rivers in the Green Swamp and Polk County.

The bill points, at least in part, to concerns about future water supplies in the region by financing the design or construction of "projects to protect, restore and enhance the headwaters," bill sponsor Melony Bell, R-Fort Meade, said.

But Lindsay Cross, water and land policy director for the Florida Conservation Voters, said the legislation for the Heartland headwaters includes uses that go beyond a 2014 voter-approved constitutional amendment that set aside documentary-stamp tax money for conservation projects. The money, which is collected on real-estate transactions, goes into the state's Land Acquisition Trust Fund.

"As written, it [the bill] would allow for money from the Land Acquisition Trust Fund to be used for gray infrastructure like wastewater systems and pipes and pumps, rather than nature-based solutions," Cross said.

In past sessions, lawmakers have earmarked annual spending from the fund to include about $200 million for Everglades protection; $64 million for a reservoir project in the Everglades Agricultural Area; $50 million for the state's natural springs; and $5 million for Lake Apopka.

Another $136 million is committed to debt payments.

Because of increased real estate transactions, so-called doc stamp tax collections for the current fiscal year have been bumped up by 8.3%.

State economists in January forecast the fund would get $1.46 billion, about $200 million more than had been estimated in August.

The projected increase came after doc-stamp collections in the 2020-2021 fiscal year were on par with the peak reached at the height of a housing boom in the 2005-2006 fiscal year.

However, in revising the state's fiscal outlook, economists on Jan. 21 said doc-stamp revenue is expected to drop in coming years "as affordability increasingly becomes an issue."

Economists also point to an anticipated increase in interest rates on 30-year fixed mortgages, from a historic low average of 2.8% in 2020 to the Mortgage Bankers Association's anticipated 4.3% in 2023, further making homes less affordable.

"These changes will be sufficient to chase some potential buyers from the market — as well as bring an end to the purchasing by buyers attempting to beat the increase — leaving dampened sales activity in their aftermath," the Jan. 21 report said.

The report projects doc-stamp revenue to drop 20.4% in the 2022-2023 fiscal year and said it could take two additional years before showing a slow rebound.

Jim Turner reports for the News Service of Florida.

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