Brace for 'Recession Shock' as Outflows Rock Equities, Bank of America Says
Strategists expect a "fast inflation shock, slow recession shock" as nominal growth continues to be boosted by surging consumer prices, fiscal stimulus, large household savings and the impact of the war in Ukraine.
September 02, 2022 at 10:35 AM
3 minute read
Financial Services and BankingInvestors bracing for a recession jolt accelerated their retreat from stocks after the Federal Reserve warned it won't be easily deterred in its fight against inflation, Bank of America Corp. strategists say.
Global equity funds had outflows of $9.4 billion in the week to Aug. 31, the fourth-largest redemptions this year, according to EPFR Global data cited by the bank. US equities had the biggest exodus in 10 weeks, while $4.2 billion left global bond funds, the data show.
Strategists led by Michael Hartnett expect a "fast inflation shock, slow recession shock" as nominal growth continues to be boosted by surging consumer prices, fiscal stimulus, large household savings and the impact of the war in Ukraine.
US stocks were walloped after Fed Chair Jerome Powell said the central bank won't slow the pace of rate hikes until inflation cools more meaningfully. The S&P 500 has erased $2 trillion in market capitalization in the past five days, and has given up nearly half of its gains made in the summer rally.
Hartnett expects "new highs in yields, new lows in stocks," adding that he would "nibble" at the S&P 500 between 3,600 and 3,700 points — as much as 9% below current levels.
Morgan Stanley's Michael J. Wilson — one of Wall Street's most famous bears — also said this week he expects the S&P 500 to hit 3,400 points in the event of a soft landing and 3,000 in case of a "proper recession." Famed investor Jeremy Grantham, meanwhile, said the "super bubble" he warned about has yet to pop.
Yet investors appear to be turning less pessimistic on the outlook for US stocks.
US stock futures jumped Friday morning after data showed unemployment in the country increased in August. S&P 500 futures rose 0.6%, while Nasdaq futures climbed 0.7%.
At the same time, Bank of America's custom bull-and-bear indicator rose from the zero mark to turn less bearish for the first time since June. The bank's so-called sell-side gauge also ticked higher in August for the first time since October 2021, strategists led by Savita Subramanian wrote in a note on Thursday. The gauge assesses Wall Street sentiment toward US equities on a monthly basis, based on asset-allocation recommendations provided to the bank and Bloomberg.
In Europe, though, there was no let up in the exodus, with stock funds seeing outflows for a 29th straight week. In terms of equity flows by style factors, US value had inflows, while small cap, growth and large cap saw redemptions. By sectors, technology led additions, while consumer had the biggest outflows.
NOT FOR REPRINT
© 2024 ALM Global, LLC, All Rights Reserved. Request academic re-use from www.copyright.com. All other uses, submit a request to [email protected]. For more information visit Asset & Logo Licensing.
You Might Like
View AllGreenberg Traurig Initiates String of Suits Following JPMorgan Chase's 'Infinite Money Glitch'
Delray Beach Financial Adviser Indicted in Alleged Illegal Tax Shelter Scheme
McGlinchey Opens Third Florida Office in Tampa, Hopes to Tap Region's Talent
2 minute readBuy-Now-Pay-Later Company Affirm Hit With Data Breach Class Action After Cyberattack on Banking Partner
Trending Stories
- 1LA Judge Anne Hwang Confirmed to the Federal Bench
- 2NY Court Leaders Ask for 10% Judiciary Budget Increase
- 3ClaimClam Wanted to Boost Class Action Claims Rates. But Judges and Attorneys Fought Back
- 4'We Will Sue ... Immediately': AG Bonta Says He's Ready to Spend $25M Battling Trump
- 511 Red State AGs Demand Damages in Antitrust Lawsuit Shaming ESG Climate Investors
Who Got The Work
Michael G. Bongiorno, Andrew Scott Dulberg and Elizabeth E. Driscoll from Wilmer Cutler Pickering Hale and Dorr have stepped in to represent Symbotic Inc., an A.I.-enabled technology platform that focuses on increasing supply chain efficiency, and other defendants in a pending shareholder derivative lawsuit. The case, filed Oct. 2 in Massachusetts District Court by the Brown Law Firm on behalf of Stephen Austen, accuses certain officers and directors of misleading investors in regard to Symbotic's potential for margin growth by failing to disclose that the company was not equipped to timely deploy its systems or manage expenses through project delays. The case, assigned to U.S. District Judge Nathaniel M. Gorton, is 1:24-cv-12522, Austen v. Cohen et al.
Who Got The Work
Edmund Polubinski and Marie Killmond of Davis Polk & Wardwell have entered appearances for data platform software development company MongoDB and other defendants in a pending shareholder derivative lawsuit. The action, filed Oct. 7 in New York Southern District Court by the Brown Law Firm, accuses the company's directors and/or officers of falsely expressing confidence in the company’s restructuring of its sales incentive plan and downplaying the severity of decreases in its upfront commitments. The case is 1:24-cv-07594, Roy v. Ittycheria et al.
Who Got The Work
Amy O. Bruchs and Kurt F. Ellison of Michael Best & Friedrich have entered appearances for Epic Systems Corp. in a pending employment discrimination lawsuit. The suit was filed Sept. 7 in Wisconsin Western District Court by Levine Eisberner LLC and Siri & Glimstad on behalf of a project manager who claims that he was wrongfully terminated after applying for a religious exemption to the defendant's COVID-19 vaccine mandate. The case, assigned to U.S. Magistrate Judge Anita Marie Boor, is 3:24-cv-00630, Secker, Nathan v. Epic Systems Corporation.
Who Got The Work
David X. Sullivan, Thomas J. Finn and Gregory A. Hall from McCarter & English have entered appearances for Sunrun Installation Services in a pending civil rights lawsuit. The complaint was filed Sept. 4 in Connecticut District Court by attorney Robert M. Berke on behalf of former employee George Edward Steins, who was arrested and charged with employing an unregistered home improvement salesperson. The complaint alleges that had Sunrun informed the Connecticut Department of Consumer Protection that the plaintiff's employment had ended in 2017 and that he no longer held Sunrun's home improvement contractor license, he would not have been hit with charges, which were dismissed in May 2024. The case, assigned to U.S. District Judge Jeffrey A. Meyer, is 3:24-cv-01423, Steins v. Sunrun, Inc. et al.
Who Got The Work
Greenberg Traurig shareholder Joshua L. Raskin has entered an appearance for boohoo.com UK Ltd. in a pending patent infringement lawsuit. The suit, filed Sept. 3 in Texas Eastern District Court by Rozier Hardt McDonough on behalf of Alto Dynamics, asserts five patents related to an online shopping platform. The case, assigned to U.S. District Judge Rodney Gilstrap, is 2:24-cv-00719, Alto Dynamics, LLC v. boohoo.com UK Limited.
Featured Firms
Law Offices of Gary Martin Hays & Associates, P.C.
(470) 294-1674
Law Offices of Mark E. Salomone
(857) 444-6468
Smith & Hassler
(713) 739-1250