Cornered Traders Brace for Dollar to Smash More Currency Records
With the greenback supercharged by expectations of higher-for-longer U.S. interest rates, traders are struggling to pick the bottom for both European and Asian currencies.
September 08, 2022 at 01:57 PM
4 minute read
Investors are rewriting playbooks on how to trade major currencies as the dollar's rampage pummels peers to fresh lows.
With the greenback supercharged by expectations of higher-for-longer U.S. interest rates, traders are struggling to pick the bottom for both European and Asian currencies.
In the last 24 hours, the pound slid to the weakest level since 1985 and the yen fell to within a whisker of 145 per dollar. Meanwhile the euro is just about hanging onto parity with the greenback ahead of the European Central Bank's interest-rate decision.
"It's difficult to call a turning point and the default is to not fight dollar strength," said Viraj Patel, a strategist at Vanda Research in London. While there's opportunity to start buying beaten-down peers like the yen, "the path of least resistance is that these hawkish Fed trades — dollar strength being one of them — continues until something stops it."
In Asia, China's yuan is teetering on the edge of the key 7 level. The risk-sensitive Korean won is hurtling toward the closely watched 1400 mark, with jawboning from officials on Wednesday having little impact.
Here's a snapshot of what's next for some of the world's most-traded currencies:
Euro Challenge
Strategists warn that not even a jumbo 75 basis-point rate hike from the ECB on Thursday will be enough to sustainably support the common currency. It fell as low as $0.9864 earlier this week, the weakest level since 2002.
ECB chief Christine Lagarde and her colleagues are grappling with the twin problems of high inflation and an impending recession.
"Given the economic outlook, it's not clear to me that higher rates will do much to support the euro," said Kit Juckes, head of currency strategy at Societe Generale SA.
Pound Hit
The pound slid as much as 1% in Wednesday trading to $1.1406, the lowest level since 1985, when new Prime Minister Liz Truss' role model Margaret Thatcher was midway through her 11-year stint in power. It's still trading around $1.15 on Thursday, having slid about 15% against the greenback this year.
While much of that performance can be attributed to demand for dollars, it also reflects the dismal economic outlook in the U.K.
Truss has taken office with double-digit inflation and warnings of a deep recession. Bank of America Corp. strategists have warned that increasing strains on government finances are one of the key long-term headwinds for the currency.
Yen Slide
For the battered yen, now on track for its worst year on record, investors are mulling the strongest warnings to date from senior Japanese government officials aimed at stemming its slide. The dollar-yen touched 144.99 Wednesday before pulling back, making 145 a key focal point for chart watchers.
Traders old enough to remember are keeping an eye on 146.78, the level reached before a joint Japan-U.S. intervention to support the currency in 1998. The U.S. Treasury Department on Wednesday stuck by its reluctance to support any potential intervention in currency markets.
The yen threatened to snap a three-day losing streak on Thursday after senior Japanese officials agreed to meet for the first time since June to discuss markets. The currency held its ground at about 143.60 in London trading.
Yuan at 7
China's currency is sliding away from the six handle, even after Beijing sent its most powerful signal yet on its discomfort with the yuan's depreciation.
Under pressure from continued COVID-induced lockdowns and the embattled property sector, investors are selling the yuan as they see little revival in growth and as interest rates in the U.S. rise at the fastest clip in a generation. Goldman Sachs Group Inc., UBS Group AG and Bank of America Corp. are all forecasting the yuan will weaken to 7 as China's economic slowdown bites.
Standard Chartered Plc doesn't expect authorities to directly intervene in markets to strengthen the yuan, though they may "step-up" on other measures including boosting issuance sizes of offshore PBOC bills in an attempt to bolster the currency, said Becky Liu, head of China macro strategy.
Risky Won
South Korea's currency, seen as a bellwether for risk-sentiment in Asia, is fast approaching the psychological 1400 level versus the dollar last seen in 2009.
Its precipitous fall prompted the central bank to warn against the pace of the currency's decline following its slump to a 13-year low on Wednesday. Yet that's done little to ease traders' bearishness. Dollar-won traded around the 1380 level Thursday.
Expect more jawboning from authorities, according to TD Securities. "We may expect more FX intervention in the days ahead as the authorities are unlikely willing to see dollar-won break above the 1400 level ahead of the Chuseok holidays," TD strategists wrote in a note.
Ruth Carson reports for Bloomberg News.
NOT FOR REPRINT
© 2024 ALM Global, LLC, All Rights Reserved. Request academic re-use from www.copyright.com. All other uses, submit a request to [email protected]. For more information visit Asset & Logo Licensing.
You Might Like
View AllTrump Mulls Big Changes to Banking Regulation, Unsettling the Industry
CFPB Orders Big Banks to Limit Overdraft Fees to $5. But Will Its Edict Stick?
3 minute readUS Judge Throws Out Sale of Infowars to The Onion. But That's Not the End of the Road for Sandy Hook Families
4 minute readGreenberg Traurig Initiates String of Suits Following JPMorgan Chase's 'Infinite Money Glitch'
Trending Stories
- 1Call for Nominations: Elite Trial Lawyers 2025
- 2Senate Judiciary Dems Release Report on Supreme Court Ethics
- 3Senate Confirms Last 2 of Biden's California Judicial Nominees
- 4Morrison & Foerster Doles Out Year-End and Special Bonuses, Raises Base Compensation for Associates
- 5Tom Girardi to Surrender to Federal Authorities on Jan. 7
Who Got The Work
Michael G. Bongiorno, Andrew Scott Dulberg and Elizabeth E. Driscoll from Wilmer Cutler Pickering Hale and Dorr have stepped in to represent Symbotic Inc., an A.I.-enabled technology platform that focuses on increasing supply chain efficiency, and other defendants in a pending shareholder derivative lawsuit. The case, filed Oct. 2 in Massachusetts District Court by the Brown Law Firm on behalf of Stephen Austen, accuses certain officers and directors of misleading investors in regard to Symbotic's potential for margin growth by failing to disclose that the company was not equipped to timely deploy its systems or manage expenses through project delays. The case, assigned to U.S. District Judge Nathaniel M. Gorton, is 1:24-cv-12522, Austen v. Cohen et al.
Who Got The Work
Edmund Polubinski and Marie Killmond of Davis Polk & Wardwell have entered appearances for data platform software development company MongoDB and other defendants in a pending shareholder derivative lawsuit. The action, filed Oct. 7 in New York Southern District Court by the Brown Law Firm, accuses the company's directors and/or officers of falsely expressing confidence in the company’s restructuring of its sales incentive plan and downplaying the severity of decreases in its upfront commitments. The case is 1:24-cv-07594, Roy v. Ittycheria et al.
Who Got The Work
Amy O. Bruchs and Kurt F. Ellison of Michael Best & Friedrich have entered appearances for Epic Systems Corp. in a pending employment discrimination lawsuit. The suit was filed Sept. 7 in Wisconsin Western District Court by Levine Eisberner LLC and Siri & Glimstad on behalf of a project manager who claims that he was wrongfully terminated after applying for a religious exemption to the defendant's COVID-19 vaccine mandate. The case, assigned to U.S. Magistrate Judge Anita Marie Boor, is 3:24-cv-00630, Secker, Nathan v. Epic Systems Corporation.
Who Got The Work
David X. Sullivan, Thomas J. Finn and Gregory A. Hall from McCarter & English have entered appearances for Sunrun Installation Services in a pending civil rights lawsuit. The complaint was filed Sept. 4 in Connecticut District Court by attorney Robert M. Berke on behalf of former employee George Edward Steins, who was arrested and charged with employing an unregistered home improvement salesperson. The complaint alleges that had Sunrun informed the Connecticut Department of Consumer Protection that the plaintiff's employment had ended in 2017 and that he no longer held Sunrun's home improvement contractor license, he would not have been hit with charges, which were dismissed in May 2024. The case, assigned to U.S. District Judge Jeffrey A. Meyer, is 3:24-cv-01423, Steins v. Sunrun, Inc. et al.
Who Got The Work
Greenberg Traurig shareholder Joshua L. Raskin has entered an appearance for boohoo.com UK Ltd. in a pending patent infringement lawsuit. The suit, filed Sept. 3 in Texas Eastern District Court by Rozier Hardt McDonough on behalf of Alto Dynamics, asserts five patents related to an online shopping platform. The case, assigned to U.S. District Judge Rodney Gilstrap, is 2:24-cv-00719, Alto Dynamics, LLC v. boohoo.com UK Limited.
Featured Firms
Law Offices of Gary Martin Hays & Associates, P.C.
(470) 294-1674
Law Offices of Mark E. Salomone
(857) 444-6468
Smith & Hassler
(713) 739-1250