Experts Make Predictions for Asian Markets in 2023
One corner of the financial world in South Korea shows what can happen when banks, builders, investors and local governments get involved in a complex financing system that comes unstuck.
December 12, 2022 at 02:36 PM
3 minute read
It's time to get out the crystal ball. The coming of a new year allows us to lift our gaze and wonder what the new year will bring. How will the battle between central banks and inflation play out? How messy will China's reopening become? And more immediately, are we in for more shocks at the FIFA World Cup? Cross my palm with silver and I will tell you the future.
The big buy: Global equities are on a roll, as China finally joins the post-COVID party. But how high will they bounce in 2023? Stock gurus from BlackRock, Goldman Sachs, Amundi and more than 130 other fund managers around the world made their predictions, and more specifically on China.
The big data: China's latest monthly industrial production, investment and retail sales data are likely to be fairly miserable, but they could mark the end of the economic hammering the world's No. 2 economy has taken from COVID restrictions, according to Bloomberg Economics. In neighboring Japan, the Tankan could show big manufacturers remain under pressure from weak demand, while in India, inflation may slow.
The big sale: One way China is leading the pack is in stock market debuts. While most major exchanges around the world saw a slump in initial public offerings this year, Chinese firms raised a record $92 billion, and some investors expect the bonanza to continue.
The big slowdown: The great rate ascent seems finally to be slowing as some of the world's biggest central banks see signs that inflation is being reined in. The Federal Reserve is expected to raise rates by 50 basis points on Wednesday, a smaller hike than at its last four policy meetings, while the European Central Bank and the Bank of England will likely follow suit the next day.
The big default: That global battle to tame inflation is beginning to show casualties. One corner of the financial world in South Korea shows what can happen when banks, builders, investors and local governments get involved in a complex financing system that comes unstuck.
The big take: On a bigger scale, other casualties of the shift in debt costs include entire countries. From Ghana to Pakistan to Papua New Guinea, debt payments are eating up government finances.
And finally, for some really "outrageous" predictions, listen to the podcast of Saxo Bank's extreme-case scenarios. Gold at $3,000 an ounce, anyone?
Adam Majendie reports for Bloomberg News.
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