During mediation, the neutral speaks with the parties about their “litigation risk” to motivate them toward a resolution. What is “litigation risk” in today’s environment? Throughout the country, verdict values in catastrophic injury cases are up. The challenge for mediation participants is to assess the realistic impact of what risk analyst Nassim Nichaolas Taleb described as the “known knowns,” the “known unknowns” and the “unknown unknowns” in litigation. In this commentary, we conceptualize litigation risk and how it can help reach a settlement in mediation.