Commentary: Icelandic meltdown promises pain and gain on High Street
For a small country, the fallout from Iceland's banking crisis has been pretty spectacular. Standing at around £12bn, the country's entire gross domestic product works out to be roughly the same as the total revenues of the UK's top 50 law firms - yet its foreign liabilities are about five times that amount. Little wonder, then, that City lawyers are predicting a glut of work as the UK ramifications of last week's collapse of three of Iceland's largest banks become clearer.In recent years, there has been a stream of Icelandic investment into UK businesses, with rafts of City firms picking up mandates as Icelandic banks and investment houses made in-roads into everything from the retail sector to football clubs.
October 15, 2008 at 10:59 PM
16 minute read
The original version of this story was published on Law.com
For a small country, the fallout from Iceland's banking crisis has been pretty spectacular. Standing at around £12bn, the country's entire gross domestic product works out to be roughly the same as the total revenues of the UK's top 50 law firms - yet its foreign liabilities are about five times that amount.
Little wonder, then, that City lawyers are predicting a glut of work as the UK ramifications of last week's collapse of three of Iceland's largest banks become clearer.
In recent years, there has been a stream of Icelandic investment into UK businesses, with rafts of City firms picking up mandates as Icelandic banks and investment houses made in-roads into everything from the retail sector to football clubs.
Partners are already predicting that while the steady flow of work advising on Icelandic investments into UK companies has dried up, it looks likely to be replaced with work advising on distressed sales and refinancing mandates.
Retail, in particular, looks set to take a battering as stores find their loan agreements have suddenly disappeared at a time when there are likely to be few banks jumping at the opportunity to fill the gap.
Given insolvency specialist Begbies Traynor's recent warning that more than 300 UK retailers now sit on its 'critical watch list' of companies that are at risk of going under in the New Year, it is hard to see how the timing could be much worse.
As one partner optimistically predicts: "Over the next six months retail will be slaughtered. No bank wants to expose itself to a flaky, cast-off business. That means business for lawyers."
Property entrepreneur Robert Tchenguiz has already emerged as one of the most high-profile losers from the Icelandic crisis after being forced to sell sizable stakes in Sainsbury's and pub group Mitchells & Butlers at a loss after Kaupthing, as financial backer, called in its loan.
Meanwhile, ailing sports group JJB Sports, which has not only lost the backing of its Icelandic insurers, but recently took a £20m bridging loan from Kaupthing, also looks shaky.
All of which could be good news in the medium term, at least, for the likes of Travers Smith and DLA Piper because, having advised their clients, including West Ham Football Club, JJB and Matalan, when they benefited from Icelandic cash injections, they could now be called on to help bail them out through refinancings or disposals.
And this is outside the short-term winners such as Freshfields Bruckhaus Deringer, Slaughter and May and Denton Wilde Sapte already profiting from the administration of the UK arms of Kaupthing and Landsbanki.
Freshfields' and Slaughters' longstanding links with the Bank of England and the Treasury respectively have come to fruition once more. Dentons, meanwhile, has been instructed both for the Financial Services Compensation Scheme and as conflicts counsel to Ernst & Young as administrators of Landsbanki's Scottish subsidiary Heritable Bank. The accounting firm has called on Freshfields as its main counsel.
While politicians play the blame game and fight over deposits and law firms make the most of short-term mandates, though, one restructuring partner is clear about the future impact.
Keep abreast of all the latest post-Lehman developments in our Legal Week Wiki special.
City law firms can expect to have their hands full as Icelandic investments in the UK begin to unravelFor a small country, the fallout from Iceland's banking crisis has been pretty spectacular. Standing at around £12bn, the country's entire gross domestic product works out to be roughly the same as the total revenues of the UK's top 50 law firms - yet its foreign liabilities are about five times that amount.
Little wonder, then, that City lawyers are predicting a glut of work as the UK ramifications of last week's collapse of three of Iceland's largest banks become clearer.
In recent years, there has been a stream of Icelandic investment into UK businesses, with rafts of City firms picking up mandates as Icelandic banks and investment houses made in-roads into everything from the retail sector to football clubs.
Partners are already predicting that while the steady flow of work advising on Icelandic investments into UK companies has dried up, it looks likely to be replaced with work advising on distressed sales and refinancing mandates.
Retail, in particular, looks set to take a battering as stores find their loan agreements have suddenly disappeared at a time when there are likely to be few banks jumping at the opportunity to fill the gap.
Given insolvency specialist Begbies Traynor's recent warning that more than 300 UK retailers now sit on its 'critical watch list' of companies that are at risk of going under in the New Year, it is hard to see how the timing could be much worse.
As one partner optimistically predicts: "Over the next six months retail will be slaughtered. No bank wants to expose itself to a flaky, cast-off business. That means business for lawyers."
Property entrepreneur Robert Tchenguiz has already emerged as one of the most high-profile losers from the Icelandic crisis after being forced to sell sizable stakes in Sainsbury's and pub group Mitchells & Butlers at a loss after Kaupthing, as financial backer, called in its loan.
Meanwhile, ailing sports group JJB Sports, which has not only lost the backing of its Icelandic insurers, but recently took a £20m bridging loan from Kaupthing, also looks shaky.
All of which could be good news in the medium term, at least, for the likes of Travers Smith and
And this is outside the short-term winners such as
Freshfields' and Slaughters' longstanding links with the Bank of England and the Treasury respectively have come to fruition once more.
While politicians play the blame game and fight over deposits and law firms make the most of short-term mandates, though, one restructuring partner is clear about the future impact.
Keep abreast of all the latest post-Lehman developments in our Legal Week Wiki special.
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