Everything has changed, everything is the same

In times of great uncertainty and jarring upheaval, it pays to remember what you can still be certain of. So, let's for a moment assume – and it is a big assumption – that the credit crunch has entered its closing chapter after the dramatic announcement in recent days of widespread government intervention. The credit market will still be strained for months and debt will be harder to come by than during the binge years of 2006-07. But charting the beginning of the end of the remarkable 15-month period for global markets would take the unknowable uncertainty of market collapse off the table. That obviously is a big positive, but what does that leave law firms facing?

First up, it is likely the usually busy September-December period of transactional activity will be deathly quiet, leaving the only deals being done as those with rock-solid fundamentals, bids too small to be affected or deals happening because of the market. That means elite law firms, benefiting in the short term from a wave of bank rescues, capital injections and major insolvency work will do OK in 2008-09. For firms outside that bracket, the deals market, which had until the summer held up well, is likely to be much tougher, so the key question will be how the market begins to settle down come January. It also means that making predictions for your April year-end right now will be fairly pointless.

The other certainty lawyers face is that, when the crunch has stopped becoming an issue, they will be facing the small matter of a UK economy in recession. That won't be pretty, though it will be considerably preferable to the disorientating uncertainty of the last four weeks that have turned on their head concepts of free markets and the role of the state. Recessions, after all, are knowable quantities. They bring certainties and familiar patterns of behaviour – that and much lower interest rates. Indeed, despite the dramatic events of recent weeks, there will be opportunities for the well-managed law firm.

But glancing over our Global 100 special this week, I'm also struck by the fact that, as much as the business world in which law firms operate has changed in recent weeks, the key forces and decisions that have defined the world's largest law firms for more than decade still hold sway.

Some have made the mistake of confusing the rise of the global law firm with the investment banks to the extent that the humbling of the banks will cripple the magic circle. But they believe it doesn't work that way. There are many forces supporting the emergence of the global law firms. The current turmoil won't slow that down; more likely it will be final stage of the process.

Keep abreast of all the latest post-Lehman developments in our Legal Week Wiki special.