Twelve months ago I wrote an article in these pages attempting to predict how Northern Ireland's (NI) law firms would fare in the short and medium term. My conclusion was that initially there would be a levelling out of growth but mid-term well-balanced firms should continue to be able to grow. So, how have we done and how far off the mark was I?

Let's start with banking. Without doubt, this time last year most NI firms (including Tughans) underestimated the extent to which local banks would be affected. It is worth remembering that most of the local growth in NI over the last 10 years has been driven by four to five locally-based banks which are ultimately controlled in Dublin, London or Copenhagen. As a result, the more pressing problems faced by these banking groups has led to the local banks focusing almost solely on their existing lending positions and undertaking comprehensive due diligence exercises on these. Yes, there has been limited new lending (and thankfully this position is now starting to improve), but the fall-off in new lending on average has been dramatic.