Wider economy keeps deal market down as UK deal volume falls 28% in H1 2010

With the exception of a few very large deals early this year, such as Prudential's ambitious but ill-fated bid to purchase the Asian assets of AIG and Novartis' $28bn (£17.4bn) acquisition of a majority stake in Alcon, the deal market this year has offered precious support for those banking on a revival taking hold.

Not only was there a slight dip (4.1%) in announced global deals from the second half of 2009, corporate activity was particularly hit in the UK during the first half of 2010, with the domestic market seeing a 28% fall in deal volume against the first six months of 2009.

There is little doubt what is to blame, with the rising concerns over sovereign debt in Europe and a knock-on impact on the global banking system hitting confidence and causing market volatility, reversing the more upbeat mood of the first quarter. With the initial flow of crisis-related mandates and restructuring work fading, transactional partners are feeling nervous about the long term outlook.

In particular, concerns have mounted regarding debt burdened Western economies facing a double-dip recession, though the International Monetary Fund last week raised its forecasts for the global economy. One partner put the case for the pessimists: "Anyone who tells you the market is looking up is telling lies – things are looking abysmal and will stay that way for a while. What has been holding companies back is not the strength of their balance sheet but concerns about the overall economic environment."

Yet that assessment is more gloomy than most, with another partner commenting: "It has undoubtedly been an incredible challenge to maintain work levels, but we are seeing modest recovery, perhaps not so much in the domestic market, but certainly on a global level."

Indeed, Mergermarket research shows that bid activity edged against the same period in 2009. Global deal volume was up 12% against H1 2009, while deal value rose by 6%; in Europe volumes were up 6% over the same period while bid value rose by 23%.

The greater degree of confidence late last year was buoyed by the Cadbury transaction, as well as Prudential's ambitious plans to crack Asia. "Confidence was definitely affirmed by the few large deals that have punctuated the market. However, midmarket deal volumes are low and a degree of fragility remains," says Linklaters global head of corporate Jeremy Parr (pictured).

Will the M&A market in the second half of 2010 see more of the same? According to research conducted by corporate finance adviser BDO-which found 80% of mid-market UK corporates planned acquisitions this year – there should in theory be a growing appetite for strategic deals.

Weil Gotshal & Manges corporate partner Marco Compagnoni sums it up: "We are seeing companies more willing to make acquisitions that they had previously deferred. We are always as busy as our clients and our clients are telling us they are confident about activity levels for the next two years. Aside from distressed M&A, there are a growing number of private company sales driven by a rising level of interest from acquisitive corporates and a somewhat improved funding environment."

Underlining Compagnoni's comments, Mergermarket's figures did show a substantial rebound for private equity coming off the lowpoint of 2009, with deal activity rising by 26.5% in the first half of 2010. But it will require a little more stability and growth from the wider economy to get a genuine deal revival going.

For more, see M&A lawyers still waiting on full-blown recovery as deal flux continues in H1