Eurozone bonds an unlikely short-term saviour but deeper ties needed to crack problems

It isn't often that the creation of a new financial instrument makes front-page news. But then it isn't often – even post-banking crisis – that global markets and public finances become so strained that discussion of the euro's break-up becomes a mainstream topic.

Amid a summer of financial turmoil, with Greece teetering on the edge of a messy default and European leaders so far failing to come up with a credible rescue plan to deal with struggling national economies and banks, European Commission president Jose Manuel Barroso made headlines by suggesting that a common eurozone bond was the best option on the table.

It's not a new refrain. While the idea for a euro-area bond, which would allow weaker countries access to cheaper borrowing, is nothing new, until recently such a move seemed a near impossibility because of the lack of European Union institutions to implement it and entrenched opposition in stronger economies to bailing out profligate southern member states.

Advisers agree that from a logistical and legal point of view, the creation of a common eurozone bond is entirely, even easily, achievable. It would provide an interesting and marketable job for the law firms likely to be called in to assist on its birth, though it would probably not be a hugely work-intensive job. Allen & Overy (A&O) capital markets partner Roger Wedderburn-Day says: "In theory it makes sense to borrow at the rates of the strongest creditor. It should certainly be cheaper than bailing out failing economies on a regular basis."

But while the idea of a common eurozone bond attracts considerable support from advisers, dealing as it does with the inherent ambiguities within the euro's structure, its creation remains blocked by tortuous national politics. Despite Germany being the prime architect of the euro, public opinion regarding the single currency has plummeted in Europe's largest economy as voters have balked at the prospect of bailing out indebted economies.

True, Germany's understandable frustration does rather ignore both its willingness in the mid-1990s to allow countries to join the euro like Greece whose public finances were clearly out of step with the core members and the extent to which German exporters have benefited from the single currency.

Linklaters capital markets partner Nigel Pridmore comments: "There are two competing arguments – either you create a eurozone bond, presumably to be issued by a central funding agency and guaranteed by all members, or you manage an orderly default by Greece. Ultimately it comes down to political buy-in from eurozone governments, particularly Germany."

jeremy-hoyland-simmonsAs Simmons & Simmons managing partner Jeremy Hoyland (pictured) says: "I can see the logic, but actually making the project sail will be difficult. It is a good idea, but nobody is prepared to say it because it is so deeply unpopular with the German people."

The upfront problems of creating a common bond – which requires hard-to-secure political backing across 17 eurozone states before you begin, a huge drawback for a measure supposed to deal with immediate and escalating market turmoil – means most advisers expect the EU to continue with more fudgeable options. If a common eurobond is a bold means of achieving the kind of eurozone fiscal union required to deal with the crisis, the controversial bond-buying programme of the European Central Bank (ECB) is viewed by many as achieving the same ends by stealth.

Optimists hope for a huge expansion of the ECB's bond buying and liquidity support for struggling states and banks combined with an orderly restructuring of Greece's debt within the eurozone. The pessimists, it barely needs saying, fear a disorderly default and Greece's exit from the euro, an outcome that would potentially have huge consequences, especially for larger economies with strained finances like Spain and Italy.


What pipeline?

In the meantime, uncertainty is wreaking havoc on debt capital markets (DCM) activity. While the first half of 2011 was good for DCM lawyers, with investment grade, retail, emerging markets, and high-yield all busy (figures from Thomson Reuters show global DCM activity 10% up on the same period the previous year, with high-yield seeing a record first half), post-July the markets tell a very different story. Since markets closed for the summer break, partners suggest new issues have pretty much ground to a halt.

Significant recent deals for A&O, for example, include a $1bn (£635m) bond for Turkey's Akbank and a £3.75bn securitisation for Santander, as well as bond offerings in Romania, Iceland and Latvia. But while all of these deals were carried out in June and, in some instances, July, finding deals after this point is much more difficult.

Similarly, Cleary Gottlieb Steen & Hamilton has been involved in roughly 25 DCM deals in Europe since January – including advising the Russian Ministry of Finance on a RUB50bn (£1bn) high-yield eurobond deal, and advising Santander's UK arm on a $2.5bn (£1.6bn) US-registered notes offering by Abbey National Treasury Services, not to mention the small matter of advising Greece on its bailout.

But London partner Pierre-Marie Boury admits deals have been few and far between since July. "In the first half of the year we were busy across the board. Now, although it isn't like 2008 when the markets closed entirely, it's hard for people to get issues away because the markets are all over the place and any market windows open and close quickly."

In fact, with the exception of a retail bond issue announced by National Grid, on which Linklaters' partner Jane Brown is advising, and a $400m (£253m) euro-denominated high-yield bond offer priced by Germany's Fresenius Medical Care earlier this month (11 September), advisers are struggling to identify a pipeline of work.

Partners predict the markets will remain unsettled, at least until the end of the year. Paradoxically, it's possible that if Europe does not start moving towards closer fiscal ties, a worsening of the situation in Greece could actually improve things as the uncertainty is currently locking up the markets even more than a crisis. Maybe. As Pridmore comments: "It's hard to price in a volatile market. There are a lot of people ready to do deals, but they're looking for stability."