The new equation - Ashurst does the math on a fast-changing world
What is the world coming to when Ashurst – of all firms – pulls off a deal that is both globally transformative (for it) and hugely illustrative of the current shifts in the international market? True, you wouldn't necessarily know the deal carries that much weight from the initial reaction. That's largely due to the novel structure used to bind the two firms, which has left rivals somewhat nonplussed.
September 28, 2011 at 07:03 PM
3 minute read
What is the world coming to when Ashurst – of all firms – pulls off a deal that is both globally transformative (for it) and hugely illustrative of the current shifts in the international market? True, you wouldn't necessarily know the deal carries that much weight from the initial reaction. That's largely due to the novel structure used to bind the two firms, which has left rivals somewhat nonplussed.
And then there's the sheer bloody oddness of a union between a large Australian practice and Ashurst – two beasts which recent experience clearly indicates have great capacity to flirt with the big deal and precious little to consummate matters. Until now.
Yet there is no denying the resonance of the union, which sees the first foreign tie-up for a top-tier Australian practice and graphically illustrates the huge premium now being placed on strategic expansion in the wider Asia-Pacific region.
It is reminiscent of the dash for Continental Europe in the late 1990s but has an added edge of fear and ambition thanks to the current pressure on Western markets. City leaders now believe that they absolutely have to make huge strides in Asia, or else. The US has become almost a secondary consideration, one for another day.
Charlie Geffen's comments also illustrate the extent to which the rash of foreign mergers in recent years, in particular Norton Rose's tie-up with Deacons and Lovells' merger with Hogan & Hartson, have shaken up the calculations about how the global legal market will develop. Ashurst has concluded that the international market will be carved by a highly select band of boutiques in key centres and a larger band of firms with scale, reach and quality. This led to the understandable conclusion that only a major deal could give Ashurst a chance to keep up.
You can't fault the logic, but will this deal deliver? Much of that rests on your view of Blake Dawson. Many observers initially interpreted the terms of the union, which will see Blakes give up its name, as a sign of a struggling firm. To be fair, historically reliable sources and the numbers the two firms have put forward strongly refute that view, painting Blakes instead as a progressive national giant ready to take radical steps to join the global market.
And, ultimately, my hunch is that there is substance to the notion of using Australia as a launchpad for the wider region – otherwise there's no way the Deacons/Norton Rose deal could have had the impact it has. That all bodes well, no question. Still, I'm inclined to reserve judgement on this one. Ashurst has looked too edgy and unsettled as a partnership over the last two years, with too many unnecessary dramas, to be entirely confident that this will work out smoothly. But the firm has the opportunity to put all that behind it and start making this much-changed world add up.
For more on the background to the deal, see Finally, a decisive step: Ashurst's long journey to a globally transformative merger.
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