Americans' scepticism is rising as US politics is becoming more polarised, says BLP's Ian De Freitas

As a US jurisdiction partner at Berwin Leighton Paisner (BLP), my work often takes me to America to see clients and law firms that we know. It is always interesting at this stage in the American political cycle to make such a trip, as I did recently – spending nearly three weeks criss-crossing the continent. Conversations often turn to who will win the presidency.

Four years ago, despite the fall-out from the Lehman crisis, there was a general mood of optimism and a welcoming of change. There seemed to be little doubt that Obama would win among those who I talked with. His messages of renewal and an end to Washington's ways of doing business were widely embraced. 'Yes we can' was everywhere.

How things have changed. Many of the promises have not been fulfilled – though this has not come as a surprise. As one Floridian said: "We knew he over-promised, but it has just been that he has delivered so little." 

And Washington has not changed. It has got worse, an oft-repeated view. Politics in America has become more polarised and this has been the fault of both sides, as one New Jersey general counsel explained. It isn't only the Republicans who have been misbehaving.

A Washington insider – a veteran of the Clinton/Gore administration – said to me: "Politicians had differences back then, but they could always put that behind them and form friendships over the dinner table or at the golf course. Now debates are characterised by personal insults and invective. People are no longer friends. This means they don't talk to one another anymore and it is impossible to find consensus. The lack of personal rapport is affecting Congress' ability to get things done."

A universal theme is that it may not matter who wins the presidency. Of course, if Romney wins and the House of Representatives remains in Republican hands, the knife-edge Senate assumes greater significance. But, as one general counsel put it to me, the 'nightmare scenario' is a Romney win plus Republican control of Congress, putting too much power in the hands of the right wing of that party.

Some who were familiar with UK politics said they would welcome the solution arrived at after our last general election – a coalition. But they accepted that in a polarised two-party system it was unlikely that any such consensus could be reached.

A business executive next to me on the flight to California from Florida said the president he wanted was Martin Sheen or President Josiah Bartlet from the TV show The West Wing – though he recognised that the character imagined by Aaron Sorkin was far from perfect. 

Increasing polarisation

There is also the sense that many voters are disenfranchised. As a Texan in-house counsel explained: "It doesn't matter how I vote in such a staunchly Republican state." There is a sense of polarisation around this issue and the extent to which each candidate plays so strongly to particular camps.

As one Atlanta lawyer said as we passed by Martin Luther King Jr's former family home: "Obama is still so popular with women and minorities and Romney so far ahead with white males, there is a real risk of further polarisation whichever wins. Whoever gets elected may struggle to bring all Americans together and Romney has not helped with his '47% don't matter' comment."

The presidential race obviously does matter though. Two ends of the spectrum that illustrate this were a conversation with a law student and the visible poverty on American city streets.

The student said in the past he would have been able to walk into the job of his choice with his predicted grades. Now he would take what he could get wherever that may be just to get a foot on the career ladder with the hope that things would improve later. From a staunchly Republican family and desperate for a change in president, even he could not bring himself to vote for Romney. "An invidious choice," as he put it. 

On the streets there was a noticeable increase in people begging (sometimes with their young children by their side) and sleeping rough – just two blocks west of the bright lights and high-end shops on Michigan Avenue in Chicago, the so-called Magnificent Mile.

But perhaps the last word should go to the Californian taxi driver, a student of political science from Afghanistan. His sense was that the presidential candidates were basically the same. Neither was a bad man as such, but they are beholden to the political machines behind them. He recounted seeing, shortly after his arrival in America, former presidents appearing together on the same stage and debating issues in a relaxed and friendly way. "This would not happen where I come from" he said. "There, when a president loses the election, his successor executes him." At least things have not reached that stage, he said as I left to catch the flight home.