In the 12-month period from spring 2012, a market-moving Australian merger or tie-up was the must-have accessory for a major international firm. From Ashurst and Herbert Smith to Linklaters and King & Wood, everyone wanted a piece of Australia's red hot, cross-border energy market.

Among those expected to follow their rivals down under was Hogan Lovells, an outfit with a significant US, European and Asia presence, not to mention a focus on energy, projects and infrastructure work.

In 2012, the firm even told Legal Week it had had informal meetings with a number of top Australian firms and was weighing up its options.

But two years later, and Hogan Lovells is still yet to make its move into the country, despite ever-present rumours of talks and visits from the firm's top brass. The question now, given the shift in the Australian economy and an ailing number of energy and resources deals, is whether the firm will ever go-ahead with its Australian venture, and if so, how?

Patrick Sherrington, the current head of Asia-Pacific, says nothing imminent is planned but that the firm has definitely not ruled Australia out.

"My personal view is that Australia is an important jurisdiction, it has high quality lawyers and if I was a businessman, which I'm not, I might be relatively bullish about Australia long term," he says. "But the Australian legal market is very well serviced."

Certainly the market still poses a lot of risks and challenges for management, as evidenced by some of the major mergers that have gone before.

"I think they have looked at the success of the [big mergers] and the feedback about internal unhappiness and it has caused them to think again about whether it is the right means to enter the market," says one Sydney-based lawyer with links to Hogan Lovells. "It raises the stakes a bit for management when partners come forward with proposals, and it has made them a bit more cautious."

The lawyer also raises the question of who the firm could partner with. While in the past it has been linked with the likes of Clayton Utz and Corrs, these firms seem keen to remain independent.

"Some of the Australian firms think their independence is important," continues the Sydney-based source. "They think in the next five years there will be room for at least one or two successful independent firms. There's evidence of that in Europe."

Perhaps more likely candidates are Minter Ellison or Gilbert + Tobin, both of which seem to have more of an international outlook.

However, another partner close to Hogan Lovells says that even with these firms a big merger is highly unlikely. This is partly due to the economic downturn in the country and partly due to the costs involved in taking on north of 150 brand new partners as well as some domestic practices which may not be relevant to a global firm.

"Logically they should be targeting smaller firms with a reputation in their niche practices such as energy and resources, infrastructure, projects, banking and finance and cross border M&A," he explains. "It doesn't make sense to take on a [large] partnership."

Sherrington himself is reluctant to take any option off the table, but makes clear that a mega merger is less likely in view of recent market developments. This would appear to leave the more manageable options of either combining with smaller firms or cherry picking lawyers. 

"The last thing they would want to do is go with someone who is not top tier," says a senior partner at a big six law firm based in Sydney. He says potential options could include firms such as Henry Davis York or Johnson Winter & Slattery.

Thus it seems most important will be to choose a firm or group with a strong market reputation which does a lot of cross border work, and potentially one with fewer partners that can more easily slide into the global network. In truth, many of these tie ups might be more accurately described as takeovers, rather than mergers.

However, the question remains: Why has it taken so long for a firm that looks like such a good fit for Australia, to follow its peers onto the continent?

The Sydney partner sums up: "I think they [Hogan Lovells] saw it as something which was easy to do but then they realised it wasn't that easy. You have the challenge of dealing with the different cultures but also the managing partners."