Analysts bet on strong year for Hong Kong IPOs as city boasts almost 100 new listings in 2014
Despite Alibaba's decision to list in the US over Hong Kong, the city's bourse recorded a strong 12 months, and lawyers are cautiously optimistic for 2015.
January 09, 2015 at 12:11 AM
6 minute read
In the last four years, the Hong Kong IPO market has taken a few knock backs. 2012 saw the city's bourse ranked just fourth in global IPO rankings down from number one – where it had sat for the previous three years – and then last summer, just as dealflow appeared to be back on track, Chinese internet giant the Alibaba Group announced it would no longer be using Hong Kong as a platform for the world's largest IPO on record, but instead looking to the US.
Which is why the exchange's ranking as the number two bourse for 2014, having seen 90 new listings valued at $29bn according to Dealogic, was such good news. One could blame the global economy – worldwide IPO value topping $263bn during the year, up 52% from 2013 and reaching its highest levels since 2010, but most market observers would agree that Hong Kong's success has been, and will continue to be, more entrenched in its unique ability to service China.
Of course there is no doubt that the market has evolved – previously boasting mega deals by state-backed power companies and big banks; only to be characterised now by lower-value listings of small and medium-sized Chinese enterprises, mostly in the consumer and technology sectors (which is to be expected of a country which is transitioning from a manufacturing hub to a consumption-based economy). The way law firms have tendered for deals and arranged payments has also shifted, with most now expecting much lower fee quotes in light of high competition and a change in client profile, but requiring payment in installments in the event that a deal won't close. And yet despite all these changes, the overall outlook for Hong Kong as a financial hub remains fairly positive, and the hope is that in 2015, the market will remain steady on all fronts.
"As we look into 2015 we don't see anything that's dramatically different," says DLA Piper's US capital markets head in Asia, Stephen Peepels. "There is nothing about interest rates or demand for Chinese companies or investor sentiment globally that we believe is going to keep us from being roughly on pace."
He adds that Hong Kong will likely see continued activity by technology and consumer companies, while more mid-sized banks could also look to the city to raise funds. Last year saw both China's Harbin Bank raise approximately $1bn in Hong Kong, and in 2013, listings included Huishang Bank, Huirong Financial and Bank of Chongqing. "There are a few which have talked actively about listing in 2015," he says. "They need to shore up their capital reserves, they need to meet the capital requirements and there is an appetite historically among Hong Kong retail investors for banking investors – now the big boys are out of the way they're next in line."
Also confident in the city is PricewaterhouseCoopers. The big four accountant is predicting that 120 new companies will choose Hong Kong as their listing destination during 2015, with 100 on the main board and 20 on the growth enterpise market (GEM) board – driven mostly by China. It estimates that total funds raised will top HK$200bn, adding that investors have identified and factored in a long-expected hike in interest rates by the US central bank, as well as uncertainties over the global economy and depressed oil prices. PwC analysts say investor appetite will be boosted by the continued growth of the Chinese economy, the Hong Kong-Shanghai Stock Connect program – which allows investors to trade shares across the Shanghai and Hong Kong exchanges – and also a recent relaxation to H-share listing requirements.
Peepels adds that even the flock of Chinese technology companies into the US (as opposed to Hong Kong) is not necessarily a negative trend, this only reflecting increased investor confidence in PRC businesses. "Yes it could be the case that the US opportunity may take away a small number of companies that had otherwise thought about listing in Hong Kong," he says, "but we think it's a reasonably small number and just adds to the overall favourable investor appetite towards investing in Chinese companies listing offshore."
There are obviously some factors which could have a negative impact on Hong Kong this year, the biggest risk being any radical change in China's fiscal policies, or the economy generally. One Hong Kong-based corporate partner says: "I think this year is going to be the same or very similar to last year, maybe a bit better, but then again things can change very rapidly. People worry about China's stability in terms of what's going to happen with the property market, politics."
Another IPO partner says that a surge in interest rates for example could hamper access to finance and thus the financial health of PRC companies, preventing them from listing at all. "If they continue to make lending easy for companies – so keep interest rates affordable – they [the companies] will be able to develop their businesses at a healthy rate. But if interest rates are high and bank financing is going to be tight that is going to have a negative impact. It's hard to predict [what will happen]. In a 12-month period a lot could happen internationally that could affect China's fiscal policy."
He adds that A shares (those listed in Shenzhen and Shanghai – which typically have higher valuations than Hong Kong stocks) could also be affected by economic policy, which in turn could draw companies away from the city. "If A shares continue to perform well then there may be more companies thinking about doing A share rather than in Hong Kong. [At the moment] there is a fairly tight regulatory approval process but they're talking about changing that to a registration process to make it easier for companies to list… Last year a lot of companies came to Hong Kong because they're tired of waiting. But that can change.
"Also towards the end of last year the Shanghai index also went up quite a bit so A hare has become very attractive."
A final development analysts believe could affect Hong Kong, albeit in a positive way, would be the introduction of dual class shares. At the moment Hong Kong explicitly bans Class A and B shares, which stipulate different voting rights and dividend payments for investors, allowing company executives to retain significant voting power even with a small amount of equity in a company. There is currently a consultation paper out on the issue called by the head of the Hong Kong stock exchange last year after the city missed out on the Alibaba listing.
But the IPO lawyer doubts whether the introduction of dual class shares would be a game-changer. "Whether that will bring more TMT companies to Hong Kong I don't know. I think more mature internet companies will continue to go to the US because of the valuations and the knowledge base of the investors."
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