Black Monday: Asia partners react
Local capital markets work predicted to take a hit as two days of turmoil in the Asian markets takes its toll
August 25, 2015 at 09:18 PM
4 minute read
When the Asian markets closed on what has been dubbed 'Black Monday' the indexes had broadly wiped off gains made from the start of the year and waves from China were being felt in markets across the world.
And although trading in London and elsewhere in Europe rallied despite the close of a second tumultuous day in Asia on news of China cutting its main interest rate yesterday, it is clear that the impact of a decline in China's growth will continue to be felt across the world.
In the short term, the most notable impact for many lawyers doing business in the country will be on capital markets work. As DLA Piper's Asia-Pacific US capital markets head, Stephen Peepels (*pictured) comments: "I wouldn't rush to make conclusions based solely on the huge market movements around the world that happened on Black Monday. But if we have several days over the next couple weeks where there are similar market fluctuations we may see companies that are approaching the end of their listing process be reluctant to price their IPOs."
Law firms reporting huge pressure from clients to push down prices for IPO work in the region are predicting the added market volatility will do nothing to abate market competition.
"Anytime you see a huge increase in market volatility, it makes it significantly harder to price transactions," continues Peepels. "Volatility makes banks and their clients cautious. Companies don't want to price too low and leave money on the table, but they also don't want to price too high only to see another market crash and have a bunch of angry investors."
King & Wood Mallesons partner Gary Lock (pictured) adds: "Early on this year we saw recovery of the equity capital market and a lot of the firms were helping companies which were gearing up for a Hong Kong IPO either later this year or earlier next, but as a result of the recent market crash I think a lot of these projects will be delayed or put on hold."
Whether or not the market turmoil signals a one-time market correction or is the beginning of a longer period of sustained period of volatility is a key question still to be answered. Likewise, questions remain over the long term impact as the Chinese economy runs out of steam after decades of rapid growth. As the world's second largest economy and a major importer of goods and services its reduced appetite and buying power is going to continue to be felt by many international law firms and their clients.
However, environments which threatens one practice creates opportunity for another. There is an expectation among partners in Asia that the fallout from the crash may result in an uptick in contentious work.
"Typically these downturns give rise to an increase in litigation and regulatory issues," says Debevoise & Plimpton corporate partner Drew Dutton. "Specifically, severe downturns in the market can lead investors to conduct trading in a manner that does not always comply with local regulations, particularly if lenders are making margin calls."
Likewise, Lock suggests that the crash may result in investors defaulting on payments for shares they have already brought leading to disputes arising from security houses looking to recover their money.
Nevertheless corporate practices may still have opportunity to benefit from the fall. Dutton highlights that clients such as global financial institutions and insurance companies are in the region "for the long term" and he anticipates many will view decreasing asset prices as an opportunity "for bolt on acquisition."
"I would also not be surprised if our private equity clients similarly see this as a prime opportunity to double down on their investments in Greater China and South East Asia," he concludes.
As economists and traders spend the coming days and weeks trying to understand what has happened in the Asian markets in order to get a sense of what comes next, the legal community will be watching closely.
The headline-grabbing events of the last few days have undoubtedly created new challenges for lawyers in already complex regional markets. However, for those who are able to navigate the uncertainty both for their clients and their practice, there are opportunities.
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