'A tragedy' - Travers Smith senior partner Chris Hale on Brexit result
The pro-Remain lawyer on the bumpy road ahead for law firms in a nation outside of the EU
June 24, 2016 at 05:39 PM
4 minute read
The result of the vote yesterday is – for liberal, cosmopolitan Londoners like me – a tragedy. The European Union (EU) has brought huge advantages for western Europe. It helped establish peace and security in a previously war-torn part of the world and the single market has assisted the UK in moving from the sick man of Europe to one of the higher growth economies in this part of the world.
It also provided job and educational opportunities for my generation, which in large part will now be denied to our children. A detailed examination of the economic, political and security arguments pointed in one direction – Remain.
The debate, though, was conducted publicly in emotional soundbites and the disturbing mix of xenophobia, racism and nostalgia for a Britain which never existed, underlying much Leave campaigning, adds to my unease as I absorb the result.
It will have seismic consequences for this country and the shockwaves will affect the legal profession. Some have been saying that Brexit will be a bonanza for lawyers. Once there is greater clarity on how our future relations with the remaining EU will be structured and the untangling of UK and EU law commences, there will be lots to advise clients on.
But there is little to get a grip on now to provide that advice and there will not be for some time. While clients are keen to understand the implications for a wide range of contracts they have entered into that have a European dimension, answers as to what it means for them will be, for the moment, in short supply. All of this advisory work is really more of a medium-term upside for lawyers.
In any event, most corporate and commercial practices in the UK are fuelled by transactions of all sorts, M&A being the most high profile. The immediate impact of Brexit will mean that fuel being in short supply. It is hard to price assets against a backcloth of uncertainty, let alone the colossal uncertainty that will exist now. This is likely to mean transaction volumes being low, with the consequential adverse consequences for corporate and commercial law firms.
How long will this uncertainty last and how long will transaction volumes be subdued? It is exceptionally hard now to answer these questions.
In its broadest sense, uncertainty will continue for years. The direction of travel is likely to become clearer sooner. On the buy side, those involved in transactions always become bored after prolonged inactivity and, in contrast to the immediate months following the financial crisis, there is plenty of equity and debt money available to spend – and which will have to be spent at some point. That is likely to mean more buy-side enthusiasm for deals earlier than might otherwise be expected. The sell side though, will have to adjust to what is likely to be a different pricing environment.
In the meantime, law firms will explore the need to protect legal privilege by routes such as Irish qualification and, indeed, may look to Dublin and elsewhere for other defensive reasons.
What the debate and result have exacerbated is the huge divisions in British society – between generations, between London and the country, and between the UK's constituent countries.
Where these divisions will lead is another uncertainty. All that is clear is that we are in for a bumpy ride.
Chris Hale is senior partner at Travers Smith.
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