Credit: William Brown

As the presidential campaign gains steam and the November election approaches, The American Lawyer asked legal observers what it will mean for Big Law. From the revolving door and busy practice areas to M&A activity, they shared their perspectives on the varied ways the industry could be affected by presidential politics in the coming year. 

Steven Wall, Managing Partner, Morgan, Lewis & Bockius

"If Democrats gain a majority in the White House and Congress, I would expect expensive regulatory work from 2021-23. That work would impact the financial services industry and employers across the United States in many different ways. If the GOP remains in control in Washington, I would expect firms like ours to be increasingly active in the regulatory efforts of the states rather than on a federal level. The vacuum created by activist attorneys general over the past few years would not allow regulatory practices to slow down, especially in states with Democratic governors. If the economy remains strong, regardless of who is in control of the government, I anticipate more transactional work. If the economy wanes, we would shift focus to practices like bankruptcy and restructuring."

Joseph Altonji, Co-Founder and Partner, LawVision

"Whoever the ultimate winner is from the Democratic side, there is going to be an uptick in regulation across the board, especially stuff around the environment and climate change, and whichever firms are best positioned to help businesses handle that will be the winner. And if a Democrat wins there will be changes to the tax law, which will cause an uptick in tax and lobbying activity. Firms that can handle that will be well positioned, and the lateral market for attorneys that do that work will be active."

David Greenwald, Chairman, Fried, Frank, Harris, Shriver & Jacobson

"The election will inevitably affect deal activity. Whether companies move faster or slower, I don't know. Our relationship with China, broadly speaking, is a very important issue. Will the Trump administration continue to battle or will they resolve it? Also, having a Democratic administration would result in a reversal of a lot that the Trump administration has done, much like the Trump administration did Obama-era regulations."

Keith Wetmore, Managing Director, Major, Lindsey & Africa

"Firms in Washington aggressively hired Obama people at the end of his administration on the idea that Hillary [Clinton] was going to win in 2016. They figured not only would they have a credential in the upcoming administration, but they would get ahead of the drain on the talent pool as those attorneys would go work for the new Democratic administration. Trump was true to his word and didn't hire traditional GOP attorneys for posts. So if the Democrats win, firms will lose those people. But they may not be able to replace them with Trump people, as this administration is so polarizing, even when toeing a traditional conservative line, that firms may find it unpopular to fill those roles with outgoing Trump administration staff."

Kevin Rinker, M&A Co-Chair, Debevoise & Plimpton

"Anti-Wall Street and anti-private equity sentiment is popular right now. They get lumped in with the 1%. If you assume Elizabeth Warren is the front-runner for the Democrats and she gets to run against Trump, you have to wonder if she will move more toward the center. But I think unless the Senate is flipped, as well as the White House, there isn't going to be a lot of impact in the M&A space."

Kent Zimmermann, Partner, Zeughauser Group

"Change in Washington is often good for law firms. Clients needs help adapting to the changes. The chair of a firm in Washington was telling me how the Trump administration has been less active than past administrations on certain forms of financial regulation. If the Democrats take the White House, he expects parts of his firm to get much busier, as he expects financial regulation to pick up."