As usual, things ran over, but eventually the parties meeting under the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change and, separately but together (kind of), under the Paris Agreement, adopted two "Decisions" by consensus, being CP.26 and CMA.3 respectively.

These decisions are similar but reflect, in their content, that the parties to each body hold separate discussions under different auspices.  More specifics are set out below.  Broadly, though:

  • COP 26 was not a Copenhagen-style disaster, but a particular disappointment was looser language than had been hoped for on phasing "down" (rather than "out") coal especially and fossil fuel subsidies more generally.  Much chagrin has been expressed in the general direction of China and India.
  • Readers will recall that at the heart of the Paris Agreement is a requirement to submit "nationally determined contributions" setting out a country's climate commitments.  Though some progress was made early in COP, "mind the gap" between what is needed (by the science) and what is on the table, remains an appropriate refrain.
  • But the most significant outcome for the private sector was probably the (much debated and delayed) adoption of rules in respect of how new market mechanisms under the Paris Agreement will work, rather than loads of promises about enhanced ambition to reduce greenhouse gas emissions.  This may yet actually prove to unlock more ambition and finance than any other Decision could have done.
  • Speaking of which, not much progress was made on getting rich countries to stump up the money that others need to mitigate climate change.
  • The difficulty for (often democratically elected) leaders in striking the balance between what is necessary (according to science) and what is politically palatable has been underscored once again.

Highlights of the two decisions referred to above (which are merely two of a much broader suite) are that they:

  • Recognise the importance of a science-lead approach.
  • Express alarm and concern about warming to date.
  • Stress the importance of enhancing ambition and action in relation to mitigation (i.e. GHG reductions), adaptation (to the effects of climate change) and finance in the 2020s.
  • Emphasise the importance of scaling up work on adaption (and note the importance of scaling up adaption finance).
  • Reaffirm the goal of holding the increase in the global average temperature to well below 2 °C above pre-industrial levels and pursuing efforts to limit the temperature increase to 1.5 °C above pre-industrial levels.
  • Resolve to pursue efforts to limit the temperature increase to 1.5 °C (recognising that this will mean reducing global carbon dioxide emissions by 45 per cent by 2030 relative to the 2010 level and to net zero around mid-century).  This is a firmer commitment to 1.5 °C than expressed in the Paris Agreement.
  • Urge developed country parties to provide enhanced support, including through financial resources, technology transfer and capacity-building, to assist developing country parties with respect to both mitigation and adaptation
  • Emphasise the need to mobilize climate finance from all sources to reach the level needed to achieve the goals of the Paris Agreement, including significantly increasing support for developing country parties, beyond USD 100 billion per year.
  • Note with deep regret (which is COP for "talk to the hand") that the goal of developed country parties to mobilise jointly USD 100 billion per year by 2020 in the context of meaningful mitigation actions and transparency on implementation has not yet been met.
  • Call on parties to accelerate the development, deployment and dissemination of technologies, and the adoption of policies, to transition towards low-emission energy systems, including by rapidly scaling up the deployment of clean power generation and energy efficiency measures, including accelerating efforts towards the phasedown of unabated coal power and phase-out of inefficient fossil fuel subsidies.

The body under the Paris Agreement in addition:

  • Notes with serious concern the findings of the synthesis report on nationally determined contributions under the Paris Agreement, according to which the aggregate greenhouse gas emission level, taking into account implementation of all submitted nationally determined contributions, is estimated to be 13.7 per cent above the 2010 level in 2030.
  • Decides to establish a work programme to urgently scale up mitigation ambition and implementation in the 2020s.
  • Requests parties to revisit and strengthen the 2030 targets in their nationally determined contributions as necessary to align with the Paris Agreement temperature goal by the end of 2022.
  • Also requests the secretariat to annually update the synthesis report on nationally determined contributions under the Paris Agreement.
  • Resolves to move swiftly with the full implementation of the Paris Agreement.
  • Welcomes a number of other Decisions relating to the completion of the Paris Agreement work programme, including in respect of:
    • Guidance on cooperative approaches referred to in Article 6, paragraph 2, of the Paris Agreement.  These are knowns as "internationally transferred mitigation outcomes" (ITMOs).  We predict the rise of the ITMO in common parlance.
    • Rules, modalities and procedures for the mechanism established by Article 6, paragraph 4, of the Paris Agreement (the "sustainable development mechanism", or SDM, not to be confused with S anD M).
    • Work programme under the framework for non-market approaches referred to in Article 6, paragraph 8, of the Paris Agreement (work programmes are what arise at COPs in the absence of definitive action being possible).

The body under the Convention in addition:

  • Invites Parties to consider further actions to reduce by 2030 non carbon dioxide greenhouse gas emissions including methane.
  • Recognises the importance of protecting, conserving and restoring ecosystems.

Things will however proceed in their usual way and we look forward to COP 27.   Not least because it will be held in the beach resort of Sharm El-Sheikh.