42. Elections Are Good for Big Law, Just Don’t Get Too Close

Legal services thrive on uncertainty. What regulations are coming and how do those within that affected industry need to respond? What do changes in the regulatory scheme mean to me? What do I need to do now to be ready for changes in policy and compliance enforcement? All of these require help and advice from lawyers.

By Lean Adviser Legal | November 14, 2024 at 03:13 PM

Lisa Shuchman’s article in The American Lawyer discussed the effect of the election on Big Law. Over here on the Lean Adviser desk, the way we see it is that a hotly contested election was always going to be good for Big Law. Not just because it was contentious, but because it was a significant legal event. New policies, less regulation, trade wars and the rest. These are all things which clients need help from Big Law to navigate.Other professional services, such as accounting and financial planning, thrive on certainty. Hence the big day that the stock market had on Nov. 6, the day after the election. While that may have been a reaction to Donald Trump’s policies and anticipated agenda, it was more likely a statement on the end to uncertainty — we know who won, we know what the policies are, and especially in this case, we have previous experience with this administration.But legal is different. Legal services thrive on uncertainty. What regulations are coming and how do those within that affected industry need to respond? What do changes in the regulatory scheme mean to me? What do I need to do now to be ready for changes in policy and compliance enforcement? All of these require help and advice from lawyers.Big Law also loves big events, and it’s worth remembering that every legal assignment is spawned by an event. An insolvency, an acquisition, a catastrophe, an IP theft, or, in this case, a regime change. These are all events, they all affect clients, and so they all trigger legal assignments. It was no surprise then to see law firm leaders jump in with their 10 cents on what it could mean.As with the catalyst, so with the lifecycle of the assignment, it’s all event driven. If we were making Toyotas or Danish pastries our work would take place in a stable operating environment. But the law is nothing like that. The lifecycle of a legal assignment is an unpredictable journey, which is vulnerable to the unexpected, the capricious and plain rotten luck. This is why clients need lean lawyers, with their creative solutions, contingency plans and robust monitoring attributes.This much was always true, but then the last two U.S. elections threw out an extra ingredient — the conspiracy theory. If events are the daily lifeblood of lawyers, conspiracy theories are a potential peril. As much as Big Law will revel in changes to the legal landscape, it stays well away from conspiracy theory work. Not because there are none available — there’s always plenty — but because the savvy lawyer will always validate assumptions, identify durable realities and then live with them.Lawyers will often discuss whether something is a hypothesis, a scientific theory or a fact. But they will all readily agree that a conspiracy theory is none of the above. Big Law will happily make hay counseling clients on the latest new laws, and anticipating the next batch. But ask them to associate with conspiracy theories, or represent the protagonists and they’ll back away. As Amanda O’Brien reported in another article from The American Lawyer, law firm leaders had a lot to say about what it will mean for business, but beyond that they were pretty coy.Elections are good for Big Law, just don’t get too close. We’ll close this election special with a quote from Paulo Coelho.“The sheep spend their lives fearing the wolf, only to be eaten by the shepherd.”Once you understand that, it has been suggested, you start to understand politics.

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