UK Lawyers Predict Rise in Transactional Work Following Tory Election Victory
Lawyers from across top firms have welcomed the stability the election result brings, but many have also warned of the trade talks ahead.
December 13, 2019 at 04:52 AM
8 minute read
London's lawyers are anticipating a wave of pent-up investment to be unleashed in the U.K. following the strong Conservative victory in the U.K.'s general election.
Corporate partners from various top firms emphasised the positive effect the result is likely to have on transactional work, but many also warned of difficult times ahead, especially in relation to Brexit trade talks.
"What many of our clients have been saying to us for months is that they needed clarity over the Brexit decision and an end to inertia and uncertainty in the UK," commented Marco Compagnoni, a private equity partner at Weil Gotshal & Manges. "Hopefully, that will now exist, and a lot of pent-up investment and transaction planning can now move forward."
"A lot of pent-up investment and transaction planning can now move forward"
David Patient, managing partner at Travers Smith, added: "Is this the outcome clients are expecting or wanting? That would depend on who they are and what they do, but I think for a lot of businesses, having that clarity and certainty will be helpful for them.
"I think a lot of business will find this positive regardless of political persuasion, we'll see a lot of renewed activity in the New Year – pent-up energy as some call it – though having said that we've seen a lot of activity already."
However, he warned that Brexit was still not done and that there is a "long uphill battle" ahead.
Herbert Smith Freehills finance partner David Wyles commented on the fact nationalisation is no longer a threat, following the Labour defeat.
"It will be interesting to observe how investors respond now that nationalisation risk has dissipated," he said. "My expectation is that investors will remain cautious, at least for a while, but that M&A activity for regulated U.K. assets will resume with a price reset to reflect continuing regulatory risk."
"M&A activity for regulated U.K. assets will resume with a price reset"
One highly rated private equity partner at a U.S. firm in London added: "There are a few deals in the pipeline with a U.K. angle where people have been slowing down, and now those deals will happen." But he added he did not expect to see a "whole raft" of private equity investment in the country. "The U.K. has become politically more stable, but not economically. Maybe there will be more infrastructure spending now but people are still cautious on the U.K. economy."
The Brexit trade talks ahead and the growth of the Scottish National Party mean that "for business… political risk will remain heightened in 2020″, according to Hogan Lovells public law partner Charles Brasted. "There has never been a greater need for businesses to engage in informing the policy choices that will shape the UK's economic and political future, and their own business environment.
"Politicians will draw on rhetoric and shows of machismo to strengthen their hand in trade negotiations, but the reality could well be an extension and/or a softening of terms."
"It creates a much more stable environment, but it doesn't answer the question of what the [Brexit] deal will look like"
For some, this is the more important long-term issue. Jonathan Herbst, global head of financial services at Norton Rose Fulbright, explained: "For financial services, my sense is that we've got a period of stability and then over that time it will become clearer what the longer term will look like. The overarching point is that it creates a much more stable environment, but it doesn't answer the question of what the [Brexit] deal will look like.
"What is true is that the uncertainty did not help commercial planning. To that extent, the election result gives people a much more certain environment to operate in."
Other comments
Michael Chissick, managing partner at Fieldfisher:
"The overall view across the firm is that the result has given certainty. It removes what has been holding businesses back. Overwhelmingly, partners would rather have remained in the EU. But it's now got to a point where we can see a stable government and the pound going up, so we're now optimistic and hopeful.
"Litigation has retained business, but transactional work has been challenging. But those concerns, we hope, are now lifted. We're hoping for a Brexit bounce. There has been a political paralysis and that wasn't good for confidence and overseas clients."
Charlie Geffen, senior of counsel, Gibson, Dunn & Crutcher:
"Hopefully his large majority and new client base will free the Prime Minister from more extreme views and allow a pragmatic, close relationship with the EU and an increase in infrastructure investment. If he can credibly demonstrate that direction of travel then confidence should return and activity increase."
David Seymour, private equity real estate partner at Ropes & Gray:
"With this result providing a likely way out of the Brexit holding pattern sooner rather than later, we expect this election result will jump-start real estate investment activity both in the UK and Europe. There is a wall of capital ready to be deployed and those capital sources have been searching for certainty since 2016. This result is likely to provide the roadmap to some kind of certainty that investors have been looking for."
Jonathan Kelly, litigation partner, Cleary Gottlieb Steen & Hamilton:
"The scale of the Conservative majority will provide the certainty and clarity of direction that business and investors have been craving over the last three years. That will lead to a Brexit bounce for UK PLC and, in turn, for English Law PLC. Yes, the detailed settlement still needs to be negotiated with the EU. That will be complex and technocratic, but there is at least a clear direction of travel now, which our patient European friends will presumably welcome after the paralysis that had taken hold.
"On a cautionary note, the Conservatives have not set a fine example in their approach to the judicial branch over Brexit. It is to be hoped that reports in the media about taking "revenge" on the Supreme Court are wild scuttlebutt rather than a genuine policy position. It would be the ultimate, undesirable irony if the supremacy and independence of the UK courts, which was stated to be a key objective of the Brexit movement, was in any way undermined just at the point of departure. The constitutional checks and balances need to remain in place."
Oliver Brettle, London-based member of White & Case's global executive committee:
"The election result brings hope that the vexed question of leaving the EU will finally be resolved. Uncertainty about our future relationship with Europe has suffocated the UK for more than three years. Let's hope the new government navigates a clear way forward that helps businesses and investors in Britain make bold decisions about future growth that will have a broad and enduring national benefit.
"Obviously, Brexit is just the start of the story. The devil will be in the detail of the future trade deal with the EU, which will be a real challenge to complete in the Prime Minister's stated time period of a year."
Bruce Embley, Freshfields Bruckhaus Deringer's global M&A client group co-head:
"The results are clearly helpful for M&A. We can expect to see continued interest in transatlantic M&A. This year, out of the top 20 deals, only two were cross-border. It's normally around 50% or more. The relationship between the U.K. and U.S. is going to be strong, which wouldn't have been the case if the election had gone the other way. It's a healthy thing for transatlantic M&A."
Richard Eccles, competition partner at Bird & Bird:
"The Prime Minister clearly now has a majority, which is more than strong enough to drive the EU Withdrawal Agreement Implementation Bill through parliament. Support for the Withdrawal Agreement has been made possible only by the hastily renegotiated Northern Ireland Protocol of October 2019, but some Brexit supporters may say that this does not result in a true Brexit, if by that one means freeing up the U.K. entirely from the free movement rules of the EU Single Market."
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