Recently I was reminded of the story about “the great horse manure crisis of 1894.” At the turn of the 20th century, there were about 50,000 horses serving as the main form of transportation in the great metropolises of London and New York. Needless to say, the neighing transit line was producing an exorbitant amount of manure daily. The problem reached headlines when the Times newspaper estimated that in 50 years every street of London would be buried under 9 feet of manure. This projection was the catalyst for the first international urban planning conference held in 1898 in New York. Unfortunately, the delegates were unable to agree on a solution. Perhaps more importantly, they were unable to break out of the mindset of a city without horses, and imagine any other alternative. Then, by 1912, the manure problem was long gone.
What solved the crisis was not a change of policy but technological innovation: electrification and the internal-combustion engine provided new, manure-less ways to transport people and goods. And the regulator was only all too happy to embrace these sudden blessings to usher in a new era in transportation.
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