Bill Cosby has already been sent to state prison to serve a sentence of three to 10 years. But the question remains: How much of that time will he really serve?

Cosby was sentenced Tuesday after being found guilty of three counts of aggravated indecent assault in April, based on Andrea Constand's allegations that he drugged and sexually assaulted her in 2004.

In addition to incarceration, he also has to pay a $25,000 fine and costs of prosecution, which the Montgomery County District Attorney's Office has said tops $43,000.

Cosby has pledged to appeal his conviction through his lawyer Joseph Green, who argued unsuccessfully Tuesday that he should be freed on bail pending appeal. But becoming engaged in a potentially lengthy appeals process could delay his progress toward parole eligibility, lawyers said, which becomes a question after three years.

The comedian, and now convicted sex offender, faces “a dilemma,” Pennsylvania defense lawyer and former prosecutor Matt Mangino said. Mangino also previously served on the Pennsylvania Board of Probation and Parole. He said the programs convicted sex offenders are required to complete during incarceration, as Cosby has been ordered to do, often cannot be completed if the inmate denies wrongdoing.

“Usually if you fail to take responsibility you won't successfully complete the program, then that's going to have an impact on parole,” Mangino said. If Cosby appeals, he said, the best he can hope for is a new trial. But if after three years Cosby takes responsibility for the crime before the parole board, that could come out at trial.

One of the goals of the program, as defined by the Pennsylvania Sexual Offenders Assessment Board, is to “to accept full responsibility and accountability for past and present behavior without cognitive distortion.”

Mangino and others said in some jurisdictions there may be specified sex offender programs that allow for completion without admitting to a crime.

But the program offered by the Pennsylvania Department of Corrections does not permit completion of the program if the offender denies committing the sex offense for which they are being treated, a spokeswoman for the department said.

M. Stewart Ryan, one of the prosecutors on Cosby's case who now practices at Laffey, Bucci & Kent, said people convicted of violent offenses and sex offenses are usually incarcerated “well beyond the minimum.” The statistics vary, he said, but they serve between 70 and 80 percent of the maximum sentence, on average.

“A lack of remorse, a failure to acknowledge or admit wrongdoing, and especially with regard to a sex offender, the failure to participate fully in treatment. … With all of these things being considered … it's certainly possible to be held longer than the minimum,” Ryan said.

“There are a lot of hurdles when you're looking at the parole board,” said Kristen Gibbons Feden, another prosecutor who worked on the case, and who is now practicing at Stradley Ronon Stevens & Young. She and Ryan noted that victims are also able to object to any release being considered.

Acknowledging the impact of the crime is also a consideration for parole, Feden said, aside from the requirements of a specific sex offender program. “Remorse in its purest sense would be an apology,” she said.

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Issues for Appeal

Cosby's case presents some issues that merit review, Mangino said, particularly the fact that five women other than Constand were allowed to testify about their allegations that Cosby drugged and sexually assaulted them. Their testimony was allowed under Pennsylvania Rule of Evidence 404(b).

Steven Fairlie, a criminal defense lawyer who is also a former prosecutor, agreed. He also said a 2016 decision that allowed the trial to proceed was another “powerful” issue for appeal. That decision, which was at the center of Cosby's last-minute request for Montgomery County Court of Common Pleas Judge Steven T. O'Neill to recuse, said a purported 2005 nonprosecution agreement between Cosby and former District Attorney Bruce Castor Jr. was not valid.

“I'm not aware of any elected district attorney testifying that there was a non-prosecution agreement, and then the defendant being prosecuted … that makes that issue interesting,” Fairlie said.

Green raised another appeals issue Tuesday, at the sentencing hearing, when he alleged that a piece of audio evidence used by prosecutors was doctored.

The appellate process itself could take longer than three years, Feden said. But she said she's confident the conviction will withstand appeals.

“The requests that we were making were all within the confines of prior case law and key precedent in Pennsylvania,” Feden said.

Green did not respond to multiple requests for comment Wednesday.

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