Interestingly, for all of the cases where FantasySCOTUS and Goldstein disagree (except Bullcoming), FantasySCOTUS is uncertain about the predictions; they are too close too call. Further, Marshall (the Anna Nicole Smith case), Freeman, Duryea, Turner, PLIVA and Actavis, have among the fewest predictions: 46, 50, 32, 34, 31, and 24, respectively.

These cases, which are relatively unpopular, and are on less noteworthy topics (not popular constitutional law questions), seem to generate uncertainty. Overall, Goldstein predicts three affirms, and two reversals. FantasySCOTUS, perhaps reflecting the fact that the Supreme Court historically reverses about 70% of cases decided, predicts three reversals, and two affirms. Time will tell in these cases whether the wisdom of the crowds can surpass the expert.

No Predictions from Goldstein

 
Goldstein
FantasySCOTUS
Certainty
Actual Outcome
McIntyre v. Nicastro
No Prediction
Affirm
No (55%+/-8.35 for 90%)
 
Goodyear v. Brown
No Prediction
Reverse
Yes at 99% (66%+/-12.1)
 



For two cases, Goldstein did not provide predictions as to the outcome, but deduced that Chief Justice John Roberts Jr. would author them, as his “distribution of opinions seems likely to make this a good fit.” For Goodyear, FantasySCOTUS predicts a reversal at a 99% confidence level. For McIntyre, FantasySCOTUS predicts an affirmance, but this prediction is not certain, even at a 90% confidence level. Here, it seems that even an expert and top Supreme Court advocate was uncertain about the outcome, but for at least one case, FantasySCOTUS is virtually certain about the outcome.

For detailed predictions for the cases, check out the FantasySCOTUS Prediction Tracker.

(Please note, we submitted this column prior to the issuance of opinions at 10:00 a.m. on 6/20/11, our analysis will not be able to fully consider these new cases. We will address these cases in a future column.)

 Josh Blackman is the creator of FantasySCOTUS.net and President of the Harlan Institute. Corey Carpenter is a law student at George Mason University and analyzes statistics on FantasySCOTUS.net.