Hitting a Moving Target: Why Brick and Mortar Retail Is Alive and Well
Joshua A. Sussberg, Christopher T. Greco and Patrick Venter write: The most common explanation for retail's recent market challenges has been a shift in consumer preferences to online sales. But online shopping only accounts for approximately 10 percent of the retail market share. So what gives?
September 15, 2017 at 02:01 PM
18 minute read
In a 2005 interview with students at the University of Kansas, Warren Buffett described the challenges of accommodating changing consumer preferences in the retail market: “Retailing is like shooting at a moving target … we would rather look for easier things to do.” Last February, in a move indicative of growing public doubt regarding the retail sector's viability, Berkshire Hathaway sold $900 million of its equity interest in Walmart, American's second largest brick and mortar retailer.
Recent market challenges in the retail industry have added credence to Berkshire's soured opinion of retail investments. More than 300 retailers have sought bankruptcy protection in 2017 alone. Many others have announced store closures and have hit multi-year stock market lows. According to Reorg Research, retail bankruptcies in the first half of 2017 rose 110 percent from the year-earlier period. Notably, distress in the retail sector coincides with favorable macroeconomic conditions: GDP growth, low unemployment, and wage growth for middle- and lower-income Americans.
The most common explanation for retail's challenges has been the so-called “Amazon Effect,” i.e., a shift in consumer preferences from brick and mortar stores to online sales. Amazon's sales rose from $16 billion in 2010 to $80 billion in 2016. Some reports indicate that half of all American households now hold Amazon Prime subscriptions. E-commerce sales have grown from an adjusted percentage of 3.5 percent in 2008 to 8.9 percent in 2017. Companies without online technology infrastructure—or too much debt to invest in technology—have been choked by the necessity to develop and maintain a true omnichannel presence.
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