A bail bonds agency. Photo: Paul Brady/Shutterstock

Nearly 20,000 more people would have been released from jail without bail before trial in 2018 if New York's statewide bail reforms had been in place then, according to a study published Monday by John Jay College's Data Collaborative for Justice.

Using New York City Office of Court Administration data, the John Jay researchers found that release without bail would have been required in 90% of 2018 cases if bail reform were in place at that time. In reality, people charged but not convicted of crimes in 2018 were released without bail in 76% of the cases that continued beyond arraignment, researchers reported.

The hypothetical finding about how bail reform would affect 2018 cases falls in line with Gov. Andrew Cuomo's assessment of the bill's effect back in March.

"Ninety percent of the people who are charged will remain out of jail," he told reporters around the time the bill was passed. Cash bail will remain an option for most violent felonies and in a few other situations, while police will be required to issue appearance tickets rather than making arrests in most low-level cases.

Researchers cautioned that the analysis should not be seen as a projection for what will happen when the law goes into effect in 2020. Projecting the effects of bail reform is especially challenging, they said, because it was passed alongside several other key criminal justice reforms, including changes to criminal discovery and how quickly criminal trials move.

The study, which only examined New York City data, broke down the analysis by borough. Manhattan would have been most affected if bail reform existed in 2018, with an additional 19% of cases leading to release without bail compared to Brooklyn's 11%, researchers found.

Prosecutors, including Manhattan District Attorney Cy Vance, have objected to the changes. Through a spokesperson, Vance declined to comment on the John Jay study, but he has criticized the expected costs of the reforms and potential risks to public safety posed by the widespread releases.

The Data Collaborative for Justice is continuing to study the potential effects of the criminal justice reform bill and will examine its actual effects starting in January, researchers said.