We have previously reported[1]� that New York courts deem it “settled and unquestioned law” that the opinion of a qualified expert “must be based on facts in the record or personally known to the witness.”[2]� Expert opinions not fulfilling these conditions are deemed “worthless,”[3]� unless they fall within two limited exceptions to the rule: (1) if the out-of-court material is “of a kind accepted in the profession as reliable in forming a professional opinion”; or (2) if it “comes from a witness subject to full cross-examination on the trial.”[4]�

Both the foregoing general rule and the limited exceptions announced by New York appellate courts obviously presuppose that the witness truly knows what he is talking about and is trustworthy enough to set forth a reliable opinion. Thus, the first exception quoted above specifically refers to out-of-court materials that are acceptably “reliable” in the particular profession. Experts are expected to state opinions with a reasonable degree of certainty.[5]� An expert opinion that is “contingent, speculative or merely possible,” in essence a “guess or surmise,” lacks reliability and probative force and, hence, is not admissible.[6]� Thus, the expert must exhibit a sufficient degree of confidence in his or her conclusions to “satisfy accepted standards of reliability.”[7]�

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