J. Paul Getty once said that the formula for success was to “rise early, work hard, strike oil.” For Mexico, it may be “import oil.” There has been a lot of buzz about Mexico’s vast oil and gas reserves and recent efforts to open its natural resources to foreign investment and development. But something counterintuitive is also occurring. Mexico, the world’s 10th largest crude oil producer, may actually import oil. How can these potentially inconsistent energy policies be reconciled? Simply put, the denationalization process takes time, and foreign energy companies are in the nascent stage of converging on Mexico. Mexico has an immediate need for oil in order to boost production at its refineries.

When Mexico nationalized its oil and gas industry in 1938, it created Petróleos Mexicanos, or Pemex. Although Pemex has imported petroleum products for years—such as diesel and gasoline—it has never imported oil. This could soon change. Mexico’s oil production has recently decreased from a high of 3.2 million barrels a day in 2008, to less than 3 million last year. Why? Declining oil fields (such as the mammoth Cantarell field), aging production infrastructure, old line bureaucracy, a lack of cutting edge technology to find and develop new oil plays, and gross underinvestment. Expanding production and refining will take years. This fact, along with decreasing oil prices, makes a decision to import oil attractive. This approach could actually go hand in hand with Mexico’s denationalization policy by supporting the country’s overall energy needs.

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