Yet more 'interesting' - spending cuts leave profession slogging on, not sliding back
Having been so long trailed, last week's Comprehensive Spending Review (CSR) leaves commercial law firms largely where they were before Chancellor George Osborne detailed the deepest public spending cuts since World War II. That is because the coalition Government had already spelled out its broad fiscal position in June's emergency Budget - to eliminate the structural deficit over the life of this Parliament. Since then, the Con/Lib coalition has gone out of its way to ram home the austerity message, understandably on the basis that it's best to get this out the way while the public will still blame the former administration.
October 27, 2010 at 07:15 PM
3 minute read
Having been so long trailed, last week's Comprehensive Spending Review (CSR) leaves commercial law firms largely where they were before Chancellor George Osborne detailed the deepest public spending cuts since World War II.
That is because the coalition Government had already spelled out its broad fiscal position in June's emergency Budget – to eliminate the structural deficit over the life of this Parliament. Since then, the Con/Lib coalition has gone out of its way to ram home the austerity message, understandably on the basis that it's best to get this out the way while the public will still blame the former administration.
This narrative of doom has had an undeniable impact on the confidence of consumers and businesses. It was no surprise that Legal Week's most recent business confidence survey saw a dip and that two UK top 50 firms – Trowers & Hamlins and McGrigors – have announced redundancy consultations ahead of the review.
Yet in detail, the CSR will make little impact to the outlook facing the profession, sticking closely as it does to previously flagged spending policies. Indeed, with the Government leaning hard on welfare spending, cuts to departmental budgets of 19% over the four-year period are a little lower than billed – almost certainly a policy of expectation management.
A double dip recession still looks unlikely, though the scope for a robust recovery has receded thanks to the gamble of accelerating spending cuts. But we knew that already. For City law firms that means spending a fair while longer facing conditions that are euphemistically labelled as 'interesting' – hard going, in other words, but not scary.
Business confidence has slipped back, but our latest poll found three out of four partners still expect growth, well up on the lows touched last April. The scale of the restructurings and cost-cutting last year among law firms and the lack of exposure to public spending underline the relative strength of many firms.
In the meantime the Government has received its pay-off from bond investors – the comparisons of the UK's finances with Greece's and Portugal's have receded. This week's above-consensus figures for UK growth in the third-quarter and the news that Standard & Poor's has upgraded its outlook for UK debt will reinforce the sense of retreating dread.
Expect the Government to now abruptly switch from austerity Britain to tales of future hope: the 'we'll get through this together' tune. That's politics. This will sound hollow for lawyers handling publicly-funded work, who face a 23% cut in the Ministry of Justice's budget over the next four years and deep cuts to legal aid.
Likewise, the mood has dimmed for lawyers servicing local authorities, which are facing some of the steepest spending reductions. City firms should be relieved they only have to deal with yet more 'interesting'.
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