The old normal - Results 2012: turbulent, expansive, eventful
There's a curiously distorted feel to our annual results for 2011-12, underlining the oxymoronic state of the legal industry, a profession often discussed these days as if it is in one of only two states: coining it in or on the verge of crisis. This year, 16 of the top 50 saw falls in profit per equity partner (PEP), six of them by more than 10%. At the other end of the scale, six firms saw PEP rocket more than 20%.
July 26, 2012 at 07:03 PM
3 minute read
There's a curiously distorted feel to our annual results for 2011-12, underlining the oxymoronic state of the legal industry, a profession often discussed these days as if it is in one of only two states: coining it in or on the verge of crisis.
This year, 16 of the top 50 saw falls in profit per equity partner (PEP), six of them by more than 10%. At the other end of the scale, six firms saw PEP rocket more than 20%.
And while the eurozone burns and Western economies slouch, the top 50 hiked revenues by 5.6% to a record total of £12.96bn. Sure, consolidation played a part in that, but not all of it. The top 50 isn't far off its all-time 2008 profitability high – an interesting position for an industry that some argue suffers massive overcapacity.
If the results and the economic environment this year resemble 2011 and 2010, other patterns are emerging. For one, London's big four have now clearly split into two groups with Allen & Overy and a more bullish Clifford Chance playing the globalisation card, while Linklaters and Freshfields Bruckhaus Deringer triangulate between the global and Wall Street law firm models. There's much to be said for top firms taming their once excessive growth zeal, but I wonder if the latter pair have over-corrected.
Elsewhere, the pecking order is looking very fluid – too fluid for many City players. The revitalisation of Norton Rose and Hogan Lovells has certainly kicked a few strategic cans down the road, but remains highly significant. In comparison, Herbert Smith and Ashurst have a lot to prove and not a lot of time to do so (and their position looks stronger than some of their peers).
An additional challenge for chasing pack firms is that there is a sprinkling of pacey City players as disparate in style and model as Berwin Leighton Paisner, Travers Smith and Mishcon de Reya breathing down their necks. It's a reminder that momentum and confidence go a long way in the legal game.
The national scene is harder to call. Frankly, until this year, this group had an awful downturn, largely failing to live up to its supposed counter-cyclical promise. The recent run of consolidation at least suggests the group has rejected the status quo of relative decline, but it will take more than that for it to prosper in the medium term.
There is something fostering all this jostling for position: an unquestionable change in the mindset of those leading major law firms. No one is expecting a return to easy growth – the New Normal is starting to look just, well, normal. That is making firms take bigger strategic bets and creates the unusual dynamic of a profitable, highly-skilled industry with the will to shake things up. Great things could await. Or, possibly, disaster.
For more, see UK top 50 law firms drive profits back towards boom-time high.
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